干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics

Arid

DOI	10.3390/land10060608
	Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics
	Chen, Yang; Yue, Wenze; Liu, Xue; Zhang, Linlin; Chen, Ye'an
通讯作者	Yue, WZ (corresponding author), Zhejiang Univ, Dept Land Management, Hangzhou 310058, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	LAND
EISSN	2073-445X
出版年	2021
卷号	10 期号:6
英文摘要	There is growing concern about the consequences of future urban expansion on carbon storage as our planet experiences rapid urbanization. While an increasing body of literature was focused on quantifying the carbon storage impact of future urban expansion across the globe, rare attempts were made from the comparative perspective on the same scale, particularly in Central Asia. In this study, Central Asian capitals, namely Ashkhabad, Bishkek, Dushanbe, Nur Sultan, and Tashkent, were used as cases. According to the potential impacts of BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) on urban expansion, baseline development scenario (BDS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS) were defined. We then simulated the carbon storage impacts of urban expansion from 2019 to 2029 by using Google Earth Engine, the Future Land Use Simulation model, and the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs model. We further explored the drivers for carbon storage impacts of future urban expansion in five capitals. The results reveal that Nur Sultan will experience carbon storage growth from 2019 to 2029 under all scenarios, while Ashkhabad, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent will show a decreasing tendency. EPS and CPS will preserve the most carbon storage for Nur Sultan and the other four cities, respectively. The negative impact of future urban expansion on carbon storage will be evident in Ashkhabad, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent, which will be relatively inapparent in Nur Sultan. The potential drivers for carbon storage consequences of future urban expansion include agricultural development in Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent, desert city development in Ashkhabad, and prioritized development of the central city and green development in Nur Sultan. We suggest that future urban development strategies for five capitals should be on the basis of differentiated characteristics and drivers for the carbon storage impacts of future urban expansion.
英文关键词	carbon storage urban expansion multi-scenario simulation Central Asian Republics
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000665997500001
WOS关键词	LAND-USE CHANGE ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SOIL CARBON ; LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS ; POTENTIAL IMPACTS ; CLUE-S ; CHINA ; SEQUESTRATION
WOS类目	Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/351074
作者单位	[Chen, Yang] Ningbo Univ, Law Sch, Ningbo 315211, Peoples R China; [Chen, Yang; Yue, Wenze] Zhejiang Univ, Dept Land Management, Hangzhou 310058, Peoples R China; [Liu, Xue] East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Shanghai 200241, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Linlin] Zhejiang Gongshang Univ, Dept Urban Rural Planning, Hangzhou 310018, Peoples R China; [Chen, Ye'an] Zhejiang Univ, Sch Econ, Hangzhou 310058, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Yang,Yue, Wenze,Liu, Xue,et al. Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics[J],2021,10(6).
APA	Chen, Yang,Yue, Wenze,Liu, Xue,Zhang, Linlin,&Chen, Ye'an.(2021).Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics.LAND,10(6).
MLA	Chen, Yang,et al."Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics".LAND 10.6(2021).