干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Quantifying the Relative Contribution of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Runoff Variations in the Central Part of Tajikistan in Central Asia

Arid

DOI	10.3390/land10050525
	Quantifying the Relative Contribution of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Runoff Variations in the Central Part of Tajikistan in Central Asia
	Gulahmadov, Nekruz; Chen, Yaning; Gulakhmadov, Aminjon; Rakhimova, Moldir; Gulakhmadov, Manuchekhr
通讯作者	Chen, YN (corresponding author), Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	LAND
EISSN	2073-445X
出版年	2021
卷号	10 期号:5
英文摘要	Quantifying the relative contribution of climate change and anthropogenic activities to runoff alterations are essential for the sustainable management of water resources in Central Asian countries. In the Kofarnihon River Basin (KRB) in Central Asia, both changing climate conditions and anthropogenic activities are known to have caused changes to the hydrological cycle. Therefore, quantifying the net influence of anthropogenic contribution to the runoff changes is a challenge. This study applied the original and modified Mann-Kendall trend test, including the Sen's slope test, Pettitt's test, double cumulative curve, and elasticity methods. These methods were applied to determine the historical trends, magnitude changes and change points of the temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and runoff from 1950 to 2016. In addition, the contributions of climate change and anthropogenic activities to runoff changes in the KRB were evaluated. The trend analysis showed a significant increasing trend in annual temperature and potential evapotranspiration, while the annual precipitation trend showed an insignificant decreasing trend during the 1950-2016 time period. The change point in runoff occurred in 1986 in the upstream region and 1991 in the downstream region. Further, the time series (1950-2016) is separated into the prior impacted period (1950-1986 and 1950-1991) and post impacted period (1987-2016 and 1992-2016) for the upstream and downstream regions, respectively. During the post impacted period, climate change and anthropogenic activities contributed to 87.96% and 12.04% in the upstream region and 7.53% and 92.47% in the downstream region of the KRB. The results showed that in runoff changes, the anthropogenic activities played a dominant role in the downstream (97.78%) and the climate change impacts played a dominant factor in the upstream region (87.96%). In the land-use type changes, the dominant role was played by construction land, which showed that the area from 248.63 km(2) in 1990 increased to 685.45 km(2) (175.69%) in 2015. These findings suggest that it is essential to adopt effective steps for the sustainable development of the ecological, hydrological, and social order in the KRB in Central Asia.
英文关键词	runoff variation climate change human activities MK test climate elasticity Kofarnihon River Basin
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	DOAJ Gold
收录类别	SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000654129400001
WOS关键词	SONGHUA RIVER-BASIN ; KENDALL TREND TEST ; LAND-COVER CHANGE ; QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT ; MIDDLE REACHES ; GLACIER MELT ; YELLOW-RIVER ; TIME SCALES ; ARID REGION ; VARIABILITY
WOS类目	Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/351066
作者单位	[Gulahmadov, Nekruz; Chen, Yaning; Gulakhmadov, Aminjon; Rakhimova, Moldir; Gulakhmadov, Manuchekhr] Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; [Gulahmadov, Nekruz; Rakhimova, Moldir; Gulakhmadov, Manuchekhr] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; [Gulahmadov, Nekruz; Gulakhmadov, Aminjon] Acad Sci Republ Tajikistan, Inst Water Problems Hydropower & Ecol, Dushanbe 734042, Tajikistan; [Gulakhmadov, Aminjon] Minist Energy & Water Resources Republ Tajikistan, Dushanbe 734064, Tajikistan; [Gulakhmadov, Manuchekhr] Comm Environm Protect Govt Republ Tajikistan, Dushanbe 734034, Tajikistan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gulahmadov, Nekruz,Chen, Yaning,Gulakhmadov, Aminjon,et al. Quantifying the Relative Contribution of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Runoff Variations in the Central Part of Tajikistan in Central Asia[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2021,10(5).
APA	Gulahmadov, Nekruz,Chen, Yaning,Gulakhmadov, Aminjon,Rakhimova, Moldir,&Gulakhmadov, Manuchekhr.(2021).Quantifying the Relative Contribution of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Runoff Variations in the Central Part of Tajikistan in Central Asia.LAND,10(5).
MLA	Gulahmadov, Nekruz,et al."Quantifying the Relative Contribution of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Runoff Variations in the Central Part of Tajikistan in Central Asia".LAND 10.5(2021).