干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina (Forssk.) Fiori

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s11629-020-6560-y
	Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina (Forssk.) Fiori - A conservation approach
	Farahat, Emad A.; Refaat, Aliaa M.
通讯作者	Farahat, EA (corresponding author), Helwan Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Bot & Microbiol, Cairo 11795, Egypt.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
ISSN	1672-6316
EISSN	1993-0321
出版年	2021
卷号	18 期号:5 页码:1235-1245
英文摘要	Climate change will affect the geographic distribution and richness of species at different spatial and temporal scales. We applied Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to predict the potential influence of climatic change on the current and future distribution of the important mountainous tree species Moringa peregrina (Forssk.) Fiori. The Maxent model performed better than random models for the species with the training and test AUC (Area Under the receiver-operating characteristic Curve) values of 0.96 and 0.90, respectively. Jackknife test and response curves showed that the distribution of the species negatively correlates with higher altitudes and precipitation in October and November. Moreover, it positively correlates with the total annual precipitation and precipitation in January. Under current and future climatic conditions, our model predicted habitat gains for M. peregrina towards the coastal northern and southern limits of its distribution. The potentially suitable habitats, under future climate projections, are currently characterized by elevations of <1000 m a.s.l. and total annual precipitation of 80-225 mm/year. Moderate and high potential habitat suitability will increase by 5.6%-6% and 2.1%-2.3%, under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. The results indicated that the habitat suitability of M. peregrina would increase with increasing climate warming, particularly under RCP2.6 scenario. We recommend sustainable conservation and cultivation of Moringa peregrina in its current habitats along the Red Sea mountains.
英文关键词	Climate change Conservation MaxEnt Mountains Moringa peregrina Arid lands
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000650209900008
WOS关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ; DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; HABITAT ; RESPONSES ; PLANTS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/350947
作者单位	[Farahat, Emad A.] Helwan Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Bot & Microbiol, Cairo 11795, Egypt; [Refaat, Aliaa M.] Ain Shams Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Bot, Cairo 11566, Egypt
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Farahat, Emad A.,Refaat, Aliaa M.. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina (Forssk.) Fiori - A conservation approach[J],2021,18(5):1235-1245.
APA	Farahat, Emad A.,&Refaat, Aliaa M..(2021).Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina (Forssk.) Fiori - A conservation approach.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,18(5),1235-1245.
MLA	Farahat, Emad A.,et al."Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina (Forssk.) Fiori - A conservation approach".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 18.5(2021):1235-1245.