干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Production suitability of date palm under changing climate in a semi-arid region predicted by CLIMEX model

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DOI	10.1016/j.jksus.2021.101394
	Production suitability of date palm under changing climate in a semi-arid region predicted by CLIMEX model
	Farooq, Shahid; Maqbool, Muhammad Mudassar; Bashir, Muhammad Amjad; Ullah, Muhammad Ihsan; Shah, Rahmat Ullah; Ali, Hayssam M.; Al Farraj, Dunia A.; Elshikh, Mohamed S.; Hatamleh, Ashraf A.; Bashir, Saqib; Wang, Yong-Feng
通讯作者	Farooq, S ; Wang, YF (corresponding author), Jiangsu Univ, Acad Environm Hlth & Ecol Secur, 301Xuefu Rd, Zhenjiang 212013, Jiangsu, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF KING SAUD UNIVERSITY SCIENCE
ISSN	1018-3647
EISSN	2213-686X
出版年	2021
卷号	33 期号:3
英文摘要	Objectives: Date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.), a member of the Arecaceae family is grown on large areas in the world with varying climatic and soil conditions. However, date palm productivity is severely being affected by ongoing climate changes. Identifying suitable production areas for date palm under changing climatic conditions could help to sustain its production. The objective of the current study was to predict the range expansion/contraction in the production areas of date palm in a semi-arid region. Methods: CLIMEX model was used to estimate the expected expansion/contraction in the potential dis-tribution areas of date palm under current and future climatic conditions. Two climate change scenarios [(CCSs) i.e., A1B and A2] were used and production suitability was predicted for three timespans [i.e., 2030 (early-century), 2050 (mid-century) and 2100 (late century)]. Results: The model estimated significant suitable area (71.21%) for date palm cultivation under current climatic conditions. Climate change seemed to have no impact on production areas until early-century. However, range contraction (8 and 10% decline under A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively) in the suitable areas was predicted for mid-century. Nonetheless, severe range contraction (27.98 and 33% decline under A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively) was predicted in the production areas for late-century. Most of the climatically suitable areas during early-century became unsuitable during late-century. Moreover, the model predicted northward shift in the production areas for date palm. The range contraction was higher under A2 climate change scenario due to higher warming trend compared to A1B scenario. Conclusion: The results of the current study indicate that plenty of areas are suitable for date palm cul-tivation. Thus, date palm cultivation could be increased in these areas for augmenting the production. Climate warming will result in the range shifts; thus, cultivation of future orchards should be planned in the most suitable areas in order to avoid the negative consequences of climate change on date palm production in the country. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of King Saud University. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
英文关键词	Date palm Semi-arid region Potential distribution Climate change CLIMEX model
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000640910500002
WOS关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; FUTURE DISTRIBUTION ; NICHE SHIFTS ; LAND-USE
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
来源机构	King Saud University
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/350931
作者单位	[Farooq, Shahid; Maqbool, Muhammad Mudassar] Ghazi Univ, Dept Agron, Dera Ghazi Khan, Pakistan; [Bashir, Muhammad Amjad] Ghazi Univ, Dept Plant Protect, Dera Ghazi Khan, Pakistan; [Ullah, Muhammad Ihsan] Sorghum Res Substn Dera Ghazi Khan, Dera Ghazi Khan, Pakistan; [Shah, Rahmat Ullah] Bahauddin Zakariya Univ, Fac Agr Sci & Technol, Dept Soil Sci, Multan, Pakistan; [Ali, Hayssam M.; Al Farraj, Dunia A.; Elshikh, Mohamed S.; Hatamleh, Ashraf A.] King Saud Univ, Coll Sci, Bot & Microbiol Dept, POB 2455, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia; [Bashir, Saqib] Ghazi Univ, Dept Soil & Environm Sci, Dera Ghazi Khan, Pakistan; [Wang, Yong-Feng] Jiangsu Univ, Acad Environm Hlth & Ecol Secur, 301Xuefu Rd, Zhenjiang 212013, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Farooq, Shahid,Maqbool, Muhammad Mudassar,Bashir, Muhammad Amjad,et al. Production suitability of date palm under changing climate in a semi-arid region predicted by CLIMEX model[J]. King Saud University,2021,33(3).
APA	Farooq, Shahid.,Maqbool, Muhammad Mudassar.,Bashir, Muhammad Amjad.,Ullah, Muhammad Ihsan.,Shah, Rahmat Ullah.,...&Wang, Yong-Feng.(2021).Production suitability of date palm under changing climate in a semi-arid region predicted by CLIMEX model.JOURNAL OF KING SAUD UNIVERSITY SCIENCE,33(3).
MLA	Farooq, Shahid,et al."Production suitability of date palm under changing climate in a semi-arid region predicted by CLIMEX model".JOURNAL OF KING SAUD UNIVERSITY SCIENCE 33.3(2021).