干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Quantifying the Uncertainty of the Future Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change: Comparative Analysis of an Advanced Hierarchical Sensitivity in Humid and Semiarid Basins

Arid

DOI	10.1175/JHM-D-20-0016.1
	Quantifying the Uncertainty of the Future Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change: Comparative Analysis of an Advanced Hierarchical Sensitivity in Humid and Semiarid Basins
	Ju, Jiali; Dai, Heng; Wu, Chuanhao; Hu, Bill X.; Ye, Ming; Chen, Xingyuan; Gui, Dongwei; Liu, Haifan; Zhang, Jin
通讯作者	Wu, CAH (corresponding author), Jinan Univ, Inst Groundwater & Earth Sci, Guangzhou, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
ISSN	1525-755X
EISSN	1525-7541
出版年	2021
卷号	22 期号:3 页码:601-621
英文摘要	Comparison and quantification of different uncertainties of future climate change involved in the modeling of a hydrological system are highly important for both hydrological modelers and policy-makers. However, few studies have accurately estimated the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty at different spatiotemporal scales. Here, a hierarchical sensitivity analysis framework (HSAF) incorporated with a variance-based global sensitivity analysis is developed to quantify the spatiotemporal contributions of different uncertainties in hydrological impacts of climate change in two different climatic (humid and semiarid) basins in China. The uncertainty sources include three emission scenarios (ESs), 20 global climate models (GCs), three hydrological models (HMs), and the associated sensitive hydrological parameters (PAs) screened and sampled by the Morris and Latin hypercube sampling methods, respectively. The results indicate that the overall trend of uncertainty is PA > HM > GC > ES, but their uncertainties have discrepancies in projections of different hydrological variables. The HM uncertainty in annual and monthly discharge projections is generally larger than the PA uncertainty in the humid basin than semiarid basin. The PA has greater uncertainty in extreme hydrological event (annual peak discharge) projections than in annual discharge projections for both basins (particularly for the humid basin), but contributes larger uncertainty to annual and monthly discharge projections in the semiarid basin than humid basin. The GC contributes larger uncertainty in all the hydrological variables projections in the humid basin than semiarid basin, while the ES uncertainty is rather limited in both basins. Overall, our results suggest there is greater spatiotemporal variability of hydrological uncertainty in more arid regions.
英文关键词	Climate change Hydrology Uncertainty Sensitivity studies
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000646373600006
WOS关键词	GLOBAL SENSITIVITY ; MODEL ; PARAMETERS ; ENSEMBLE ; RIVER
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/350919
作者单位	[Ju, Jiali; Hu, Bill X.; Liu, Haifan] China Univ Geosci, Sch Water Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Dai, Heng] China Univ Geosci, State Key Lab Biogeol & Environm Geol, Wuhan, Peoples R China; [Dai, Heng] Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi, Peoples R China; [Wu, Chuanhao; Hu, Bill X.; Zhang, Jin] Jinan Univ, Inst Groundwater & Earth Sci, Guangzhou, Peoples R China; [Ye, Ming] Florida State Univ, Dept Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA; [Chen, Xingyuan] Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Richland, WA USA; [Gui, Dongwei] Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Cele Natl Stn Observat & Res Desert Grassland Eco, Urumqi, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ju, Jiali,Dai, Heng,Wu, Chuanhao,et al. Quantifying the Uncertainty of the Future Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change: Comparative Analysis of an Advanced Hierarchical Sensitivity in Humid and Semiarid Basins[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2021,22(3):601-621.
APA	Ju, Jiali.,Dai, Heng.,Wu, Chuanhao.,Hu, Bill X..,Ye, Ming.,...&Zhang, Jin.(2021).Quantifying the Uncertainty of the Future Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change: Comparative Analysis of an Advanced Hierarchical Sensitivity in Humid and Semiarid Basins.JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,22(3),601-621.
MLA	Ju, Jiali,et al."Quantifying the Uncertainty of the Future Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change: Comparative Analysis of an Advanced Hierarchical Sensitivity in Humid and Semiarid Basins".JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY 22.3(2021):601-621.