干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): System dynamics to assess the effectiveness of restoration scenarios for the Urmia Lake: A prey-predator approach for the human-environment uncertain interactions

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125891
	System dynamics to assess the effectiveness of restoration scenarios for the Urmia Lake: A prey-predator approach for the human-environment uncertain interactions
	Barhagh, Seyed Ershad; Zarghami, Mahdi; Ghale, Yusuf Alizade Govarchin; Shahbazbegian, Mohammad Reza
通讯作者	Zarghami, M (corresponding author), Sharif Univ Technol, Inst Water & Energy, Tehran, Iran.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
出版年	2021
卷号	593
英文摘要	In recent decades, population growth, agricultural development and climate change have caused environmental problems in the world, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions such as Iran. Urmia Lake, one of the unique biosphere reserves of the world, has suffered from these problems in the last 20 years. Although many studies conducted to the negative impacts of human-induced activities, especially agricultural expansion on the lake, few studies focused on providing restoration plans for that. This study uses a system dynamics method for modelling the restorations scenarios of Urmia Lake based on the prey-predator approach. This method is helpful to simplify the complicated feedbacks and interactions among human-environment. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to explore the effect of uncertain parameters on the lake level. Based on the results of this study, the agricultural water consumption (as predator) has the most significant effect on reducing the lake volume (prey). The results indicated that decreasing the area of irrigated lands by 40%, improving irrigation efficiency, reducing the lake area itself, and inter-basin water transfer will lead to increase in the lake water level by 2.54 m, 2.04 m, 1.19 m and 1.19 m, respectively. By applying all the suggested scenarios, the lake water level will reach to its ecological level (1274 MSL) in 2023. The recent positive restoration signals of the lake have coincidence with the findings of current research and bring more hope to the future of the lake.
英文关键词	Urmia Lake Restoration scenarios Prey-predator System dynamics Water-food nexus Human-environment interactions
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000639853400072
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; WATER-RESOURCES ; SALINE LAKE ; LAND-USE ; DESICCATION ; PATTERNS
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/350875
作者单位	[Barhagh, Seyed Ershad; Zarghami, Mahdi] Univ Tabriz, Fac Civil Engn, Ctr Excellence Hydroinformat, Tabriz, Iran; [Zarghami, Mahdi] Sharif Univ Technol, Inst Water & Energy, Tehran, Iran; [Zarghami, Mahdi] Univ Tabriz, Inst Environm, Tabriz, Iran; [Ghale, Yusuf Alizade Govarchin] Istanbul Tech Univ, Eurasia Inst Earth Sci, Climate & Marine Sci Dept, Istanbul, Turkey; [Shahbazbegian, Mohammad Reza] Tarbiat Modares Univ, Geog Spatial Planning Dept, Humanities Fac, Tehran, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Barhagh, Seyed Ershad,Zarghami, Mahdi,Ghale, Yusuf Alizade Govarchin,et al. System dynamics to assess the effectiveness of restoration scenarios for the Urmia Lake: A prey-predator approach for the human-environment uncertain interactions[J],2021,593.
APA	Barhagh, Seyed Ershad,Zarghami, Mahdi,Ghale, Yusuf Alizade Govarchin,&Shahbazbegian, Mohammad Reza.(2021).System dynamics to assess the effectiveness of restoration scenarios for the Urmia Lake: A prey-predator approach for the human-environment uncertain interactions.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,593.
MLA	Barhagh, Seyed Ershad,et al."System dynamics to assess the effectiveness of restoration scenarios for the Urmia Lake: A prey-predator approach for the human-environment uncertain interactions".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 593(2021).