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DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125586
	Increasing risk of meteorological drought in the Lake Urmia basin under climate change: Introducing the precipitation-temperature deciles index
	Abbasian, Mohammad Sadegh; Najafi, Mohammad Reza; Abrishamchi, Ahmad
通讯作者	Abbasian, MS (corresponding author), Sharif Univ Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Azadi Ave, Tehran, Iran.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
出版年	2021
卷号	592
英文摘要	Meteorological droughts due to the concurrent occurrence of low-precipitation and high-temperature events can lead to severe negative impacts on agriculture, economy, ecosystem, and society. This study proposes a novel framework to characterize such drought conditions based on the joint variability of precipitation-temperature, particularly under climate change. Generalized hierarchical linear model is used to downscale precipitation and temperature at multiple stations from the outputs of nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. A bivariate drought index called Precipitation-Temperature Deciles Index (PTDI) is developed using copulas to assess changes in future dry/hot conditions. The methodology is applied to the Lake Urmia basin located in a semi-arid region in the northwest of Iran. Lake Urmia, the sixth largest salt lake in the world at the original size, has shrunk dramatically causing environmental and socioeconomic disruptions. Results suggest that the climate of the region is projected to shift toward drier/hotter conditions in the future. The multi-model ensemble means of all GCMs shows an increase of similar to 4 degrees C in the regional temperature and similar to 25 mm (8%) decrease in precipitation in 2060-2080 based on RCP8.5. The magnitude of climate-induced water deficit is projected to increase under all future scenarios. According to the PTDI, projected changes in the number of extremely dry/hot months in 2060-2080 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 relative to the historical period vary between 2.4 and 7.3% and 4.5-13.2%, respectively. This condition is unfavorable for the revival of the endangered lake while maintaining the agricultural activities in the region.
英文关键词	Climate change impact Precipitation Temperature Bivariate drought index Copula Lake Urmia
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000639844900005
WOS关键词	CIRCULATION MODEL OUTPUTS ; MULTISITE DAILY RAINFALL ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLES ; EVAPORATIVE DEMAND ; SUPPORT VECTOR ; RIVER-BASIN ; IMPACTS ; VARIABILITY ; PROJECTIONS
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/350870
作者单位	[Abbasian, Mohammad Sadegh; Abrishamchi, Ahmad] Sharif Univ Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Azadi Ave, Tehran, Iran; [Najafi, Mohammad Reza] Univ Western Ontario, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, ON, Canada; [Abrishamchi, Ahmad] Sharif Univ Technol, UNESCO Chair Water & Environm Management Sustaina, Azadi Ave, Tehran, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Abbasian, Mohammad Sadegh,Najafi, Mohammad Reza,Abrishamchi, Ahmad. Increasing risk of meteorological drought in the Lake Urmia basin under climate change: Introducing the precipitation-temperature deciles index[J],2021,592.
APA	Abbasian, Mohammad Sadegh,Najafi, Mohammad Reza,&Abrishamchi, Ahmad.(2021).Increasing risk of meteorological drought in the Lake Urmia basin under climate change: Introducing the precipitation-temperature deciles index.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,592.
MLA	Abbasian, Mohammad Sadegh,et al."Increasing risk of meteorological drought in the Lake Urmia basin under climate change: Introducing the precipitation-temperature deciles index".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 592(2021).