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DOI	10.1016/j.jher.2021.01.004
	Optimal water allocation at different levels of climate change to minimize water shortage in arid regions (Case Study: Zayandeh-Rud River Basin, Iran)
	Zareian, Mohammad Javad
通讯作者	Zareian, MJ (corresponding author), Water Res Inst WRI, Dept Water Resources Res, Tehran, Iran.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDRO-ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH
ISSN	1570-6443
EISSN	1876-4444
出版年	2021
卷号	35 页码:13-30
英文摘要	Climate change is one of the most important factors influencing the future of the world?s environment. The most important impacts of climate change are changes in water supply and demand in different regions of the world. In this study, different climate change patterns in two RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios (RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway), were adopted for the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin, Iran, through weighting of GCMs (General Circulation Models). These climate change patterns are including ideal, medium, and critical patterns. Using the LARS-WG model (Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), the outputs of the GCMs were downscaled statistically and the daily temperature and precipitation time series were generated from 2020 to 2044. Then, based on this information, the inflow volume into the Zayandeh-Rud Reservoir was predicted by the IHACRES model (Identification of unit Hydrograph and Component flows from Rainfall, Evaporation and Streamflow) and the agricultural water demand was also estimated based on future evapotranspiration. Finally, using GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) software, water resources in this basin were allocated based on the basic management scenario (B) and the water demand management scenario (D). The results showed that the average monthly temperature will increase by 0.6 to 1.3 ?C under different climate change patterns. On the other hand, on the annual basis, precipitation will decrease by 6.5 to 31% and inflow volume to the ZayandehRud Reservoir will decrease by 21 to 38%. The results also showed that the water shortages based on the baseline management scenario (B) will be between 334 and 805 MCM (Million Cubic Meters). These range of values varies between 252 and 787 MCM in the water demand management scenario (D). In general, the water shortage can be reduced in the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin with water demand control, but complete resolution of this problem in this region requires more integrated strategies based on a sustainable development, such as a fundamental change in the cropping pattern, prevention of population growth and industrial development.
英文关键词	Climate change Water allocation Water shortage Zayendeh-Rud River Basin
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000637200700002
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/350863
作者单位	[Zareian, Mohammad Javad] Water Res Inst WRI, Dept Water Resources Res, Tehran, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zareian, Mohammad Javad. Optimal water allocation at different levels of climate change to minimize water shortage in arid regions (Case Study: Zayandeh-Rud River Basin, Iran)[J],2021,35:13-30.
APA	Zareian, Mohammad Javad.(2021).Optimal water allocation at different levels of climate change to minimize water shortage in arid regions (Case Study: Zayandeh-Rud River Basin, Iran).JOURNAL OF HYDRO-ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH,35,13-30.
MLA	Zareian, Mohammad Javad."Optimal water allocation at different levels of climate change to minimize water shortage in arid regions (Case Study: Zayandeh-Rud River Basin, Iran)".JOURNAL OF HYDRO-ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH 35(2021):13-30.

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