干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Impact of future tsunamis from the Java trench on household welfare: Merging geophysics and economics through catastrophe modelling

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DOI	10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102291
	Impact of future tsunamis from the Java trench on household welfare: Merging geophysics and economics through catastrophe modelling
	Salmanidou, Dimitra M.; Ehara, Ayao; Himaz, Rozana; Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Guillas, Serge
通讯作者	Salmanidou, DM (corresponding author), UCL, Dept Stat Sci, London, England.
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
ISSN	2212-4209
出版年	2021
卷号	61
英文摘要	This paper presents the first end-to-end example of a risk model for loss of assets in households due to possible future tsunamis. There is a significant need for Government to assess the generic risk to buildings, and the concrete impact on the full range of assets of households, including the ones that are key to livelihoods such as agricultural land, fishing boats, livestock and equipment. Our approach relies on the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework to integrate hazard and risk. We first generate 25 representative events of tsunamigenic earthquakes off the Southern coast of Java, Indonesia. We then create a new vulnerability function based upon the Indonesian household survey STAR1 of how much assets have been reduced in each household after the 2004 tsunami. We run a multinomial logit regression to precisely allocate the probabilistic impacts to bins that correspond with levels of financial reduction in assets. We focus on the town of Cilacap for which we build loss exceedance curves, which represent the financial losses that may be exceeded at a range of future timelines, using future tsunami inundations over a surveyed layout and value of assets over the city. Our loss calculations show that losses increase sharply, especially for events with return periods beyond 250 years. These series of computations will allow more accurate investigations of impacts on livelihoods and thus will help design mitigation strategies as well as policies to minimize suffering from tsunamis.
英文关键词	Natural disasters Risk modelling Insurance Vulnerability Disaster risk finance Indonesia
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Published, hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000664149600001
WOS关键词	INDIAN-OCEAN ; NATURAL DISASTERS ; EARTHQUAKE ; SULAWESI ; STRATEGIES
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
来源机构	University of London
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/350578
作者单位	[Salmanidou, Dimitra M.; Ehara, Ayao; Guillas, Serge] UCL, Dept Stat Sci, London, England; [Himaz, Rozana] Oxford Brookes Univ, Sch Business, Oxford, England; [Heidarzadeh, Mohammad] Brunel Univ London, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Uxbridge UB8 3PH, Middx, England
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Salmanidou, Dimitra M.,Ehara, Ayao,Himaz, Rozana,et al. Impact of future tsunamis from the Java trench on household welfare: Merging geophysics and economics through catastrophe modelling[J]. University of London,2021,61.
APA	Salmanidou, Dimitra M.,Ehara, Ayao,Himaz, Rozana,Heidarzadeh, Mohammad,&Guillas, Serge.(2021).Impact of future tsunamis from the Java trench on household welfare: Merging geophysics and economics through catastrophe modelling.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION,61.
MLA	Salmanidou, Dimitra M.,et al."Impact of future tsunamis from the Java trench on household welfare: Merging geophysics and economics through catastrophe modelling".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION 61(2021).