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DOI	10.1002/joc.7064
	Future drought in CMIP6 projections and the socioeconomic impacts in China
	Chen, Liqin; Wang, Guojie; Miao, Lijuan; Gnyawali, Kaushal Raj; Li, Shijie; Amankwah, Solomon Obiri Yeboah; Huang, Jinlong; Lu, Jiao; Zhan, Mingyue
通讯作者	Wang, GJ (corresponding author), Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Geog Sci, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
出版年	2021
卷号	41 期号:8 页码:4151-4170
英文摘要	Projections of future drought conditions under climate change are an important step in formulating the long-term climate adaptation strategies. It is therefore valuable to predict the drought conditions in China following the release of the CMIP6 (the phase six of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project). Thus, based on 20 global climate model simulations from CMIP6, we project China's drought conditions and its socioeconomic impacts using the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI). Four scenarios are considered in this analysis: SSP1-2.6 (the low-level development scenario), SSP2-4.5 (the middle-level development scenario), SSP3-7.0 (the medium to high-level development scenario) and SSP5-8.5 (the high-level development scenario). Under SSP1-2.6, we observed wetting trends over large areas of China except the arid region during 2020-2099; however, under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, significant drying trends are detected in the humid and temperate semi-humid region, while in other areas there are significant wetting trends. The projected drought conditions are likely to be severe with more frequent monthly occurrences and higher probability of extreme drying conditions, especially in these humid and temperate semi-humid regions under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Consequently, the population exposure to drought in most climatic regions will increase initially up to 2040s and gradually decrease under all the scenarios except SSP3-7.0; and the humid region will be a future hotspot where the impact of climate on population exposure to drought will be more significant. The economic exposure to drought will increase over the whole China under all four scenarios, especially in the humid and semi-humid region. Our results have important implications for future drought projections and provide a scientific evidence for developing climate change adaptation strategies and disaster prevention.
英文关键词	China CMIP6 drought GDP population scPDSI
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000624284500001
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	南京信息工程大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/350573
作者单位	[Chen, Liqin; Wang, Guojie; Miao, Lijuan; Li, Shijie; Amankwah, Solomon Obiri Yeboah; Huang, Jinlong; Lu, Jiao; Zhan, Mingyue] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Geog Sci, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Peoples R China; [Miao, Lijuan] Leibniz Inst Agr Dev Transit Econ, Struct Dev Farms & Rural Areas Struct Change, Halle, Saale, Germany; [Gnyawali, Kaushal Raj] Himalayan Risk Res Inst, Nat Hazards Sect, Bhaktapur, Nepal
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Liqin,Wang, Guojie,Miao, Lijuan,et al. Future drought in CMIP6 projections and the socioeconomic impacts in China[J]. 南京信息工程大学,2021,41(8):4151-4170.
APA	Chen, Liqin.,Wang, Guojie.,Miao, Lijuan.,Gnyawali, Kaushal Raj.,Li, Shijie.,...&Zhan, Mingyue.(2021).Future drought in CMIP6 projections and the socioeconomic impacts in China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,41(8),4151-4170.
MLA	Chen, Liqin,et al."Future drought in CMIP6 projections and the socioeconomic impacts in China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 41.8(2021):4151-4170.