干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Seasonal and diurnal performance of daily forecasts with WRF V3.8.1 over the United Arab Emirates

Arid

DOI	10.5194/gmd-14-1615-2021
	Seasonal and diurnal performance of daily forecasts with WRF V3.8.1 over the United Arab Emirates
	Branch, Oliver; Schwitalla, Thomas; Temimi, Marouane; Fonseca, Ricardo; Nelli, Narendra; Weston, Michael; Milovac, Josipa; Wulfmeyer, Volker
通讯作者	Branch, O (corresponding author), Univ Hohenheim, Inst Phys & Meteorol, D-70593 Stuttgart, Germany.
来源期刊	GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
ISSN	1991-959X
EISSN	1991-9603
出版年	2021
卷号	14 期号:3 页码:1615-1637
英文摘要	Effective numerical weather forecasting is vital in arid regions like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) where extreme events like heat waves, flash floods, and dust storms are severe. Hence, accurate forecasting of quantities like surface temperatures and humidity is very important. To date, there have been few seasonal-to-annual scale verification studies with WRF at high spatial and temporal resolution. This study employs a convection-permitting scale (2.7 km grid scale) simulation with WRF with Noah-MP, in daily forecast mode, from 1 January to 30 November 2015. WRF was verified using measurements of 2 m air temperature (T-2m), 2 m dew point (TD2m), and 10 m wind speed (UV10m) from 48 UAE WMO-compliant surface weather stations. Analysis was made of seasonal and diurnal performance within the desert, marine, and mountain regions of the UAE. Results show that WRF represents temperature (T-2m) quite adequately during the daytime with biases <= +1 degrees C. There is, however, a nocturnal cold bias (-1 to -4 degrees C), which increases during hotter months in the desert and mountain regions. The marine region has the smallest T-2m biases (< -0.75 degrees C). WRF performs well regarding TD2m, with mean biases mostly <= 1 degrees C. TD2m over the marine region is overestimated, though (0.75-1 degrees C), and nocturnal mountain TD2m is underestimated (similar to -2 degrees C). UV 10 m performance on land still needs improvement, and biases can occasionally be large (1-2 m s(-1)). This performance tends to worsen during the hot months, particularly inland with peak biases reaching similar to 3 m s(-1). UV10m is better simulated in the marine region (bias <= 1 m s(-1)). There is an apparent relationship between T-2m bias and UV10m bias, which may indicate issues in simulation of the daytime sea breeze. TD2m biases tend to be more independent. Studies such as these are vital for accurate assessment of WRF nowcasting performance and to identify model deficiencies. By combining sensitivity tests, process, and observational studies with seasonal verification, we can further improve forecasting systems for the UAE.
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Submitted, gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000631342300002
WOS关键词	SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; WEATHER RESEARCH ; NOAH MODEL ; CLIMATE ; WIND ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATIONS ; CONVECTION ; IMPACT ; PLANTATIONS
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Geology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/350431
作者单位	[Branch, Oliver; Schwitalla, Thomas; Wulfmeyer, Volker] Univ Hohenheim, Inst Phys & Meteorol, D-70593 Stuttgart, Germany; [Temimi, Marouane] Stevens Inst Technol, Dept Civil Environm & Ocean Engn CEOE, Hoboken, NJ 07030 USA; [Fonseca, Ricardo; Nelli, Narendra; Weston, Michael] Khalifa Univ Sci & Technol, Abu Dhabi, U Arab Emirates; [Milovac, Josipa] Univ Cantabria, CSIC, Inst Fis Cantabria, Meteorol Grp, Santander, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Branch, Oliver,Schwitalla, Thomas,Temimi, Marouane,et al. Seasonal and diurnal performance of daily forecasts with WRF V3.8.1 over the United Arab Emirates[J],2021,14(3):1615-1637.
APA	Branch, Oliver.,Schwitalla, Thomas.,Temimi, Marouane.,Fonseca, Ricardo.,Nelli, Narendra.,...&Wulfmeyer, Volker.(2021).Seasonal and diurnal performance of daily forecasts with WRF V3.8.1 over the United Arab Emirates.GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT,14(3),1615-1637.
MLA	Branch, Oliver,et al."Seasonal and diurnal performance of daily forecasts with WRF V3.8.1 over the United Arab Emirates".GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT 14.3(2021):1615-1637.