干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The scenario-based variations and causes of future surface soil moisture across China in the twenty-first century

Arid

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/abde5e
	The scenario-based variations and causes of future surface soil moisture across China in the twenty-first century
	Fan, Keke; Zhang, Qiang; Li, Jianping; Chen, Deliang; Xu, Chong-Yu
通讯作者	Zhang, Q (corresponding author), Beijing Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China. ; Zhang, Q (corresponding author), Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China. ; Zhang, Q (corresponding author), Beijing Normal Univ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	1748-9326
出版年	2021
卷号	16 期号:3
英文摘要	Surface soil moisture (SSM) is a key factor for water and heat exchanges between land surface and the atmosphere. It is also important to water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems. In the backdrop of global warming, SSM variations and potential causes are not well-known at regional scales. Based on soil moisture (SM) data from GLDAS-Noah and 16 global climate models (GCMs) selected from 25 GCMs in CMIP5, we analyzed spatial distribution and temporal changes of SSM in China and quantified fractional contributions of four meteorological factors to the SSM variations. The selected models have the same direction of historic trends in SSM during 1981-2005 as those in the GLDAS SSM data which were also further used to calibrate the trends simulated by the 16 GCMs. Based on the calibration results for the 16 GCMs, future SSMs for nine regions were analyzed in mainland China under four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. No significant changes were identified in SSM across most regions of mainland China under RCP2.6 scenario. However, there is a general wetting tendency in the arid regions and drying tendency across the humid regions under all the scenarios except RCP2.6. In general, the higher the global temperature raises, the more grids with significant increase or significant decrease in SSM. These findings contradicted prevailing view that wet regions get wetter and dry regions get drier. Attribution analysis indicates that precipitation acts as the major driver for SSM variations and contributes up to 43.4% of SSM variations across China. These results provide new insights into future SSM response to climate warming and a scientific basis to mitigation and adaptation works related to SSM in the future.
英文关键词	surface soil moisture spatiotemporal evolution climate scenarios hydrological cycle
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000626880600001
WOS关键词	AIR-TEMPERATURE ; LAND ; CLIMATE ; REGIONS ; TRENDS ; PRECIPITATION ; ASSIMILATION ; AGRICULTURE ; DROUGHT
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	北京师范大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/350150
作者单位	[Fan, Keke; Zhang, Qiang] Beijing Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; [Fan, Keke; Zhang, Qiang] Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; [Fan, Keke; Zhang, Qiang] Beijing Normal Univ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; [Li, Jianping] Ocean Univ China, Minist Educ, Key Lab Phys Oceanog, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China; [Chen, Deliang] Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Reg Climate Grp, Box 460, SE-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden; [Xu, Chong-Yu] Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci & Hydrol, POB 1047, N-016 Oslo, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fan, Keke,Zhang, Qiang,Li, Jianping,et al. The scenario-based variations and causes of future surface soil moisture across China in the twenty-first century[J]. 北京师范大学,2021,16(3).
APA	Fan, Keke,Zhang, Qiang,Li, Jianping,Chen, Deliang,&Xu, Chong-Yu.(2021).The scenario-based variations and causes of future surface soil moisture across China in the twenty-first century.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,16(3).
MLA	Fan, Keke,et al."The scenario-based variations and causes of future surface soil moisture across China in the twenty-first century".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 16.3(2021).