干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Spatiotemporal characteristic and forecast of drought in northern Xinjiang, China

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107712
	Spatiotemporal characteristic and forecast of drought in northern Xinjiang, China
	Zhang, Haiwei; Song, Jia; Wang, Gang; Wu, XiuYi; Li, Jun
通讯作者	Song, J (corresponding author), Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
ISSN	1470-160X
EISSN	1872-7034
出版年	2021
卷号	127
英文摘要	Understanding monitor accurately and predicting drought conditions are necessary to prevent economic losses and natural disasters. Now, there is still a lack of comprehensive assessment of drought prediction in Xinjiang. In order to better predict the future drought trend, firstly we analyzed the trends of SPEI and the magnitude and frequency of drought in selected surface meteorological stations from 1960 to 2017. Secondly, we compared drought trends and spatial distribution characteristics of SPEI and PDSI. Based on historical data from 1960 to 2017, the paper predicted the trends of SPEI and PDSI in the next five years. The results show that the winter SPEI has risen significantly, and there was a SPEI value mutation in 1994. The Spring, Summer and Autumn SPEI show an insignificant downward trend. It is relatively stable on other time scales , and there is no significant sudden change. It is inferred thatthe increasing trend of wetting that may occur under different time scales at NRX in 2021, winter and annual scales will continue to be humidified, and spring, summer, and autumn will continue to be arid. Droughts in NRX occur at least once every three years, which is a high frequency event. The prediction results of the artificial neutral network (ANN) method based on multilayer feed forward network show that probability of humidification at NRX is more likely in the future, and the prediction results of wavelet and Hurst index are basically consistent with that of ANN method.
英文关键词	Drought Spatiotemporal Characteristic Climate change Wavelet Variance SPEI
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000659187000001
WOS关键词	ARID REGION ; WAVE-PROPAGATION ; SAMPLING THEORY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DATA SET ; VARIABILITY
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	河海大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/350010
作者单位	[Zhang, Haiwei; Wang, Gang; Wu, XiuYi; Li, Jun] Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Haiwei; Wang, Gang; Wu, XiuYi; Li, Jun] Nanjing Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Virtual Geog Environm, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China; [Song, Jia] Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China; [Song, Jia] Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China; [Wang, Gang] Yancheng Teachers Univ, Sch Urban & Plan, Yancheng 224002, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Haiwei,Song, Jia,Wang, Gang,et al. Spatiotemporal characteristic and forecast of drought in northern Xinjiang, China[J]. 河海大学,2021,127.
APA	Zhang, Haiwei,Song, Jia,Wang, Gang,Wu, XiuYi,&Li, Jun.(2021).Spatiotemporal characteristic and forecast of drought in northern Xinjiang, China.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,127.
MLA	Zhang, Haiwei,et al."Spatiotemporal characteristic and forecast of drought in northern Xinjiang, China".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 127(2021).