干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios

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DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107377
	Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios
	Perovic, Veljko; Kadovic, Ratko; Durdevic, Vladimir; Pavlovic, Dragana; Pavlovic, Marija; Cakmak, Dragan; Mitrovic, Miroslava; Pavlovic, Pavle
通讯作者	Perovic, V (corresponding author), Univ Belgrade, Natl Inst Republ Serbia, Inst Biol Res Sinisa Stankovic, Dept Ecol, Bulevar Despota Stefana 142, Belgrade 11060, Serbia.
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
ISSN	1470-160X
EISSN	1872-7034
出版年	2021
卷号	123
英文摘要	Land degradation and desertification (LDD) is one of the greatest ecological challenges of today, with climate change resulting from anthropogenic factors a major cause of it. Recent projections of LDD in the Mediterranean region indicate a gradual widening of arid areas due to increased aridity and global warming by the end of the 21st century. Therefore, this study used the MEDALUS method to identify sensitivity to LDD in Western Serbia between 1986 and 2005 and to assess possible effects of climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) on land degradation processes by the end of the 21st century. Likewise, analysis of possible major drivers of degradation was conducted using principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression analysis (MLRA). The study revealed that degradation processes in the study area were found to be most influenced by anthropogenic drivers (34.4%), less so by natural/anthropogenic ones (23.5%), and least by natural factors (20.1%). Results also showed that critical areas of LDD susceptibility account for nearly 37% of the study area, transitional areas cover 35%, while 27% constitutes potentially safe areas. Additionally, critical areas were projected to expand by 33.6% (RCP4.5) and 51.7% (RCP8.5) by 2100 as a result of predicted temperature increases and a reduction in precipitation in the study area. This study also revealed that the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) better explains the impact of climate change on LDD than other indices, bearing in mind the capacity of this index to detect temporal oscillations in drought in the context of climate change, and it is therefore a reliable climate parameter for this method.
英文关键词	LDD MEDALUS Drivers Climate change SPEI
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000615921800003
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/349992
作者单位	[Perovic, Veljko; Pavlovic, Dragana; Pavlovic, Marija; Cakmak, Dragan; Mitrovic, Miroslava; Pavlovic, Pavle] Univ Belgrade, Natl Inst Republ Serbia, Inst Biol Res Sinisa Stankovic, Dept Ecol, Bulevar Despota Stefana 142, Belgrade 11060, Serbia; [Kadovic, Ratko] Univ Belgrade, Fac Forestry, Kneza Viseslava 1, Belgrade 11030, Serbia; [Durdevic, Vladimir] Univ Belgrade, Fac Phys, Inst Meteorol, Dobracina 16, Belgrade 11000, Serbia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Perovic, Veljko,Kadovic, Ratko,Durdevic, Vladimir,et al. Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios[J],2021,123.
APA	Perovic, Veljko.,Kadovic, Ratko.,Durdevic, Vladimir.,Pavlovic, Dragana.,Pavlovic, Marija.,...&Pavlovic, Pavle.(2021).Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,123.
MLA	Perovic, Veljko,et al."Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 123(2021).