干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Simulating land use/land cover change in an arid region with the coupling models

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107231
	Simulating land use/land cover change in an arid region with the coupling models
	Wang, Qingzheng; Guan, Qingyu; Lin, Jinkuo; Luo, Haiping; Tan, Zhe; Ma, Yunrui
通讯作者	Guan, QY (corresponding author), Lanzhou Univ, Coll Earth & Environm Sci, Gansu Key Lab Environm Pollut Predict & Control, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
ISSN	1470-160X
EISSN	1872-7034
出版年	2021
卷号	122
英文摘要	The rapid development of productivity and economy has led to a substantial change in global land use/land cover (LULC), which has caused a series of environmental problems. Therefore, it is particularly important to quantitatively grasp the spatiotemporal pattern of LULC to formulate and implement land use planning. This study extracted LULC by the combination of supervised classification and manual visual interpretation and quantitatively analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in LULC. Finally, the land use situation was simulated, and the driving forces affecting LULC changes were analyzed with the logistic regression-cellular automata-Markov chain (LR-CA-Markov) and FLUS models. The results showed that the ecological environment underwent more noticeable changes in approximately the year 2000. Relatively speaking, LULC changes were the most dramatic during 1987-1997. With the implementation of the Grain for Green Project (GFGP) in 1999, the ecological environment began to develop towards a positive trend, but built-up land area has also grown rapidly. The economy was the main factor influencing the change in LULC. The simulation results showed that the simulation accuracy and kappa coefficient of the LR-CA-Markov and FLUS models were both greater than 0.85, and the prediction results of the same land-type change trend were basically the same. On this basis, the land use scenario in 2027-2047 was predicted. The results showed that the LULC would change dramatically over the next 30 years (likely due to urban expansion). Therefore, LULC research in arid regions can provide theoretical guidance for protecting the ecological environment, rationally planning land use, and realizing the sustainable development of arid zones, such as the economy, society, and ecological environment.
英文关键词	LULC Logistic regression CA-Markov FLUS Land use simulation
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000613230900003
WOS关键词	SHIYANG RIVER-BASIN ; CA-MARKOV ; CELLULAR-AUTOMATA ; URBAN EXPANSION ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; ECONOMIC-GROWTH ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DRIVING FACTORS ; CARBON STORAGE ; USE SCENARIOS
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	兰州大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/349988
作者单位	[Wang, Qingzheng; Guan, Qingyu; Lin, Jinkuo; Luo, Haiping; Tan, Zhe; Ma, Yunrui] Lanzhou Univ, Coll Earth & Environm Sci, Gansu Key Lab Environm Pollut Predict & Control, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Qingzheng,Guan, Qingyu,Lin, Jinkuo,et al. Simulating land use/land cover change in an arid region with the coupling models[J]. 兰州大学,2021,122.
APA	Wang, Qingzheng,Guan, Qingyu,Lin, Jinkuo,Luo, Haiping,Tan, Zhe,&Ma, Yunrui.(2021).Simulating land use/land cover change in an arid region with the coupling models.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,122.
MLA	Wang, Qingzheng,et al."Simulating land use/land cover change in an arid region with the coupling models".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 122(2021).