干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Genetic data improves niche model discrimination and alters the direction and magnitude of climate change forecasts

Arid

DOI	10.1002/eap.2254
	Genetic data improves niche model discrimination and alters the direction and magnitude of climate change forecasts
	Bothwell, Helen M.; Evans, Luke M.; Hersch-Green, Erika I.; Woolbright, Scott A.; Allan, Gerard J.; Whitham, Thomas G.
通讯作者	Bothwell, HM (corresponding author), No Arizona Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Environm Genet & Genom Facil, 617 South Beaver St,POB 5640, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA. ; Bothwell, HM (corresponding author), Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Biol, Canberra, ACT 2602, Australia.
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
ISSN	1051-0761
EISSN	1939-5582
出版年	2021
卷号	31 期号:3
英文摘要	Ecological niche models (ENMs) have classically operated under the simplifying assumptions that there are no barriers to gene flow, species are genetically homogeneous (i.e., no population-specific local adaptation), and all individuals share the same niche. Yet, these assumptions are violated for most broadly distributed species. Here, we incorporate genetic data from the widespread riparian tree species narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia) to examine whether including intraspecific genetic variation can alter model performance and predictions of climate change impacts. We found that (1) P. angustifolia is differentiated into six genetic groups across its range from Mexico to Canada and (2) different populations occupy distinct climate niches representing unique ecotypes. Comparing model discriminatory power, (3) all genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) outperformed the standard species-level ENM (3-14% increase in AUC; 1-23% increase in pROC). Furthermore, (4) gENMs predicted large differences among ecotypes in both the direction and magnitude of responses to climate change and (5) revealed evidence of niche divergence, particularly for the Eastern Rocky Mountain ecotype. (6) Models also predicted progressively increasing fragmentation and decreasing overlap between ecotypes. Contact zones are often hotspots of diversity that are critical for supporting species' capacity to respond to present and future climate change, thus predicted reductions in connectivity among ecotypes is of conservation concern. We further examined the generality of our findings by comparing our model developed for a higher elevation Rocky Mountain species with a related desert riparian cottonwood, P. fremontii. Together our results suggest that incorporating intraspecific genetic information can improve model performance by addressing this important source of variance. gENMs bring an evolutionary perspective to niche modeling and provide a truly adaptive management approach to support conservation genetic management of species facing global change.
英文关键词	climate change ecological niche modeling evolutionarily significant units landscape genetics narrowleaf cottonwood niche conservatism niche divergence Populus angustifolia species distribution modeling
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000608834900001
WOS类目	Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/349981
作者单位	[Bothwell, Helen M.; Evans, Luke M.; Hersch-Green, Erika I.; Woolbright, Scott A.; Allan, Gerard J.; Whitham, Thomas G.] No Arizona Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Environm Genet & Genom Facil, 617 South Beaver St,POB 5640, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA; [Allan, Gerard J.; Whitham, Thomas G.] No Arizona Univ, Merriam Powell Ctr Environm Res, 800 South Beaver St,POB 6077, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA; [Bothwell, Helen M.] Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Biol, Canberra, ACT 2602, Australia; [Evans, Luke M.] Univ Colorado, Inst Behav Genet, 1480-1520 30th St, Boulder, CO 80303 USA; [Hersch-Green, Erika I.] Michigan Technol Univ, Dept Biol Sci, 740 Dow Bldg, Houghton, MI 49931 USA; [Woolbright, Scott A.] Univ Arkansas, Dept Biol, 2801 South Univ Ave, Little Rock, AR 72204 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bothwell, Helen M.,Evans, Luke M.,Hersch-Green, Erika I.,et al. Genetic data improves niche model discrimination and alters the direction and magnitude of climate change forecasts[J],2021,31(3).
APA	Bothwell, Helen M.,Evans, Luke M.,Hersch-Green, Erika I.,Woolbright, Scott A.,Allan, Gerard J.,&Whitham, Thomas G..(2021).Genetic data improves niche model discrimination and alters the direction and magnitude of climate change forecasts.ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS,31(3).
MLA	Bothwell, Helen M.,et al."Genetic data improves niche model discrimination and alters the direction and magnitude of climate change forecasts".ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 31.3(2021).