干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Anthropogenic Warming and Population Growth May Double US Heat Stress by the Late 21st Century

Arid

DOI	10.1029/2020EF001886
	Anthropogenic Warming and Population Growth May Double US Heat Stress by the Late 21st Century
	Mukherjee, Sourav; Mishra, Ashok Kumar; Mann, Michael E.; Raymond, Colin
通讯作者	Mishra, AK (corresponding author), Clemson Univ, Glenn Dept Civil Engn, Lowry Hall, Clemson, SC 29634 USA.
来源期刊	EARTHS FUTURE
EISSN	2328-4277
出版年	2021
卷号	9 期号:5
英文摘要	Globally, heat stress (HS) is nearly certain to increase rapidly over the coming decades, characterized by increased frequency, severity, and spatiotemporal extent of extreme temperature and humidity. While these characteristics have been investigated independently, a holistic analysis integrating them is potentially more informative. Using observations, climate projections from the CMIP5 model ensemble, and historical and future population estimates, we apply the IPCC risk framework to examine present and projected future potential impact (PI) of summer heat stress for the contiguous United States (CONUS) as a function of non-stationary HS characteristics and population exposure. We find that the PI of short-to-medium duration (1-7 days) HS events is likely to increase more than three-fold across densely populated regions of the U.S. including the Northeast, Southeast Piedmont, Midwest, and parts of the Desert Southwest by late this century (2060-2099) under the highest emissions scenario. The contribution from climate change alone more than doubles the impact in the coastal Pacific Northwest, central California, and the Great Lakes region, implying a substantial increase in HS risk without aggressive mitigation efforts.
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000656968900005
WOS关键词	MORTALITY RISK ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WAVE ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; IMPACTS ; EVENTS ; STATES
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/349970
作者单位	[Mukherjee, Sourav; Mishra, Ashok Kumar] Clemson Univ, Glenn Dept Civil Engn, Lowry Hall, Clemson, SC 29634 USA; [Mann, Michael E.] Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; [Raymond, Colin] CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Earth Sci Div, Pasadena, CA USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mukherjee, Sourav,Mishra, Ashok Kumar,Mann, Michael E.,et al. Anthropogenic Warming and Population Growth May Double US Heat Stress by the Late 21st Century[J],2021,9(5).
APA	Mukherjee, Sourav,Mishra, Ashok Kumar,Mann, Michael E.,&Raymond, Colin.(2021).Anthropogenic Warming and Population Growth May Double US Heat Stress by the Late 21st Century.EARTHS FUTURE,9(5).
MLA	Mukherjee, Sourav,et al."Anthropogenic Warming and Population Growth May Double US Heat Stress by the Late 21st Century".EARTHS FUTURE 9.5(2021).