干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Modelling species distributions and environmental suitability highlights risk of plant invasions in western United States

Arid

DOI	10.1111/ddi.13232
	Modelling species distributions and environmental suitability highlights risk of plant invasions in western United States
	McMahon, Devin E.; Urza, Alexandra K.; Brown, Jessi L.; Phelan, Conor; Chambers, Jeanne C.
通讯作者	Urza, AK (corresponding author), US Forest Serv, USDA, Rocky Mt Res Stn, Reno, NV 89511 USA.
来源期刊	DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
ISSN	1366-9516
EISSN	1472-4642
出版年	2021
卷号	27 期号:4 页码:710-728
英文摘要	Aim: Non-native invasive plants impact ecosystems globally, and the distributions of many species are expanding. The current and potential distributions of many invaders have not been characterized at the broad scales needed for effective management. We modelled the distributions of 15 non-native invasive grass and forb species of concern in western North America to define their environmental niches and predict potential invasion risk. Location: Arid and semi-arid western United States. Methods: We modelled species distribution using presence/absence data from > 148,000 vegetation survey plots to predict the probability of presence of each species based on associated climate, soil, topography and disturbance records. Boosted regression tree models were trained and tested within a buffer distance from presence observations of each species. Buffers were optimized by adding absence observations from increasingly large areas until prediction of presence was maximized, as defined by the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC). We evaluated model AUPRC and other metrics by cross-validation within training areas, then projected final models within focal EPA level III ecoregions. Results: Focal species were present in 2.7% to 21% of plots within model training areas of 40 to 340 km radius. Models conservatively estimated potential species presence, with typically low false positive rates and moderate sensitivity. The most influential predictors of presence included minimum temperature (especially for grasses), climatic water deficit, precipitation seasonality and fire history. Cold desert ecoregions were impacted by the most species, with predicted range expansion into the prairie ecoregions and infilling for Warm Desert species. Main conclusions: Invasive forb and grass species are likely to expand their ranges and continued increases in temperature, aridity and area burned will increase invasion risk. Monitoring species presence and absence and mapping known and potential ranges with a focus on presence detection, as in our methodology, will aid in identifying new invasions and prioritizing prevention and control.
英文关键词	arid AUPRC climate suitability forbs grasses invasive plants semi-arid species distribution modelling western USA
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	DOAJ Gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000611868500001
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/349944
作者单位	[McMahon, Devin E.; Urza, Alexandra K.; Chambers, Jeanne C.] US Forest Serv, USDA, Rocky Mt Res Stn, Reno, NV 89511 USA; [McMahon, Devin E.] US Forest Serv, USDA, Six Rivers Natl Forest, Eureka, CA USA; [Brown, Jessi L.] Univ Nevada, Dept Biol, Reno, NV 89557 USA; [Phelan, Conor] Univ Nevada, Dept Nat Resources & Environm Sci, Reno, NV 89557 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	McMahon, Devin E.,Urza, Alexandra K.,Brown, Jessi L.,et al. Modelling species distributions and environmental suitability highlights risk of plant invasions in western United States[J],2021,27(4):710-728.
APA	McMahon, Devin E.,Urza, Alexandra K.,Brown, Jessi L.,Phelan, Conor,&Chambers, Jeanne C..(2021).Modelling species distributions and environmental suitability highlights risk of plant invasions in western United States.DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,27(4),710-728.
MLA	McMahon, Devin E.,et al."Modelling species distributions and environmental suitability highlights risk of plant invasions in western United States".DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS 27.4(2021):710-728.