干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Temperature dataset of CMIP6 models over China: evaluation, trend and uncertainty

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05691-2
	Temperature dataset of CMIP6 models over China: evaluation, trend and uncertainty
	You, Qinglong; Cai, Ziyi; Wu, Fangying; Jiang, Zhihong; Pepin, Nick; Shen, Samuel S. P.
通讯作者	You, QL (corresponding author), Fudan Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Inst Atmospher Sci, Room 5002-1,Environm Sci Bldg,2005 Songhu Rd, Shanghai 200438, Peoples R China. ; You, QL (corresponding author), Zhuhai Fudan Innovat Res Inst, Innovat Ctr Ocean & Atmosphere Syst, Zhuhai 518057, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN	0930-7575
EISSN	1432-0894
出版年	2021
卷号	57 期号:1-2 页码:17-35
英文摘要	The information on the projected climate changes over China is of great importance for preparing the nation's societal adaptiveness to the future natural ecosystem. This study reports the surface mean temperature changes during 2014-2100 over China and its four sub-regions (Northern China, Northwestern China, Southern China, and the Tibetan Plateau) by analyzing 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585. The multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) of 20 CMIP6 models has cold biases over China during 1979-2014, with improved performance compared with the CMIP5 models. In contrast, the CMIP6 models simulate well in the spatial climatology with lower warming rates over China. Relative to 1986-2005, the regionally averaged surface mean temperatures from the MMEM over China under SSP126, SSP245, SSP585 scenarios are projected to increase by 1.31 degrees C, 1.32 degrees C, 1.45 degrees C in the near-term (2021-2040), 1.75 degrees C, 2.06 degrees C, 2.66 degrees C in the mid-term (2041-2060), and 1.08 degrees C, 2.97 degrees C, 5.62 degrees C in the long-term (2081-2100), respectively. The CMIP6 models simulate accelerated warming occurs over the Northwestern China and the Tibetan Plateau, suggesting that the arid and semi-arid regions are particularly sensitive to future climate warming. We quantify uncertainty for future projections of temperature changes over China, and the main sources of uncertainty are model and scenario uncertainty particularly for the regions with the largest cold bias. This suggests that the observational constraints on these regions will lead to significant improvements for climatic projections over China.
英文关键词	Future climate change Near term CMIP6 China
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000618940500002
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	南京信息工程大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/349859
作者单位	[You, Qinglong; Cai, Ziyi] Fudan Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Inst Atmospher Sci, Room 5002-1,Environm Sci Bldg,2005 Songhu Rd, Shanghai 200438, Peoples R China; [You, Qinglong] Zhuhai Fudan Innovat Res Inst, Innovat Ctr Ocean & Atmosphere Syst, Zhuhai 518057, Peoples R China; [Wu, Fangying; Jiang, Zhihong] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol NUIST, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ KLME, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China; [Pepin, Nick] Univ Portsmouth, Dept Geog, Portsmouth, Hants, England; [Shen, Samuel S. P.] San Diego State Univ, Dept Math & Stat, San Diego, CA 92182 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	You, Qinglong,Cai, Ziyi,Wu, Fangying,et al. Temperature dataset of CMIP6 models over China: evaluation, trend and uncertainty[J]. 南京信息工程大学,2021,57(1-2):17-35.
APA	You, Qinglong,Cai, Ziyi,Wu, Fangying,Jiang, Zhihong,Pepin, Nick,&Shen, Samuel S. P..(2021).Temperature dataset of CMIP6 models over China: evaluation, trend and uncertainty.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,57(1-2),17-35.
MLA	You, Qinglong,et al."Temperature dataset of CMIP6 models over China: evaluation, trend and uncertainty".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 57.1-2(2021):17-35.