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DOI	10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110995
	Mathematical model, forecast and analysis on the spread of COVID-19
	Mishra, Bimal Kumar; Keshri, Ajit Kumar; Saini, Dinesh Kumar; Ayesha, Syeda; Mishra, Binay Kumar; Rao, Yerra Shankar
通讯作者	Mishra, BK (corresponding author), Markham Coll Commerce, Hazaribagh, India.
来源期刊	CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS
ISSN	0960-0779
EISSN	1873-2887
出版年	2021
卷号	147
英文摘要	A B S T R A C T Pandemic COVID-19 which has infected more than 35,027,546 people and death more than 1,034,837 people in 235 countries as on October 05, 2020 has created a chaos across the globe. In this paper, we develop a compartmental epidemic model to understand the spreading behaviour of the disease in human population with a special case of Bhilwara, a desert town in India where successful control measures TTT (tracking, testing and treatment) was adopted to curb the disease in the very early phase of the spread of the disease in India. Local and global asymptotic stability is established for endemic equilibrium. Extensive numerical simulations with real parametric values are performed to validate the analytical results. Trend analysis of fatality rate, infection rate, and impact of lockdown is performed for USA, European countries, Russia, Iran, China, Japan, S. Korea with a comparative assessment by India. Kruskal -Wallis test is performed to test the null hypothesis for infected cases during the four lockdown phases in India. It has been observed that there is a significant difference at both 95% and 99% confidence interval in the infected cases, recovered cases and the case fatality rate during all the four phases of the lockdown. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	mathematical model forecasting time series analysis COVID-19 reproduction number quarantine
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000663440700015
WOS类目	Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Physics, Multidisciplinary ; Physics, Mathematical
WOS研究方向	Mathematics ; Physics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/349825
作者单位	[Mishra, Bimal Kumar] Markham Coll Commerce, Hazaribagh, India; [Keshri, Ajit Kumar] Birla Inst Technol, Dept Comp Sci & Engn, Ranchi, India; [Saini, Dinesh Kumar] Manipal Univ Jaipur, Dept Comp & Commun Engn, Manipal, India; [Ayesha, Syeda] Wollongong Univ, Dept Financial Management, Dubai, U Arab Emirates; [Mishra, Binay Kumar] Veer Kunwar Singh Univ, Dept Phys, Ara, India; [Rao, Yerra Shankar] Gandhi Inst Excellent Technocrats, Dept Math, Bhubaneswar, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mishra, Bimal Kumar,Keshri, Ajit Kumar,Saini, Dinesh Kumar,et al. Mathematical model, forecast and analysis on the spread of COVID-19[J],2021,147.
APA	Mishra, Bimal Kumar,Keshri, Ajit Kumar,Saini, Dinesh Kumar,Ayesha, Syeda,Mishra, Binay Kumar,&Rao, Yerra Shankar.(2021).Mathematical model, forecast and analysis on the spread of COVID-19.CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS,147.
MLA	Mishra, Bimal Kumar,et al."Mathematical model, forecast and analysis on the spread of COVID-19".CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS 147(2021).