干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Projections of future meteorological droughts in China under CMIP6 from a three-dimensional perspective

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.agwat.2021.106849
	Projections of future meteorological droughts in China under CMIP6 from a three-dimensional perspective
	Xu, Yang; Zhang, Xuan; Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Li, Chong
通讯作者	Zhang, X (corresponding author), Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Water Sci, Beijing Key Lab Urban Hydrol Cycle & Sponge City, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT
ISSN	0378-3774
EISSN	1873-2283
出版年	2021
卷号	252
英文摘要	In recent years, serious drought-related disasters in China have received increased attention due to their significant impacts. Assessing drought variations was critical to ensure agricultural activity, social development, and human health. This study used the three-dimensional clustering method to investigate variations of drought events in historical (1971-2010) and future (SSP126 and SSP585, 2061-2100) periods in China based on observations and model simulations from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The variations and risk analysis of drought characteristics were assessed by copula-based methods. Results indicated that precipitation was projected to increase by 12.0% and 19.5% for the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively, with substantial increases in arid and semi-arid regions. The drought duration, severity, and affected area are shown to increase based on the CMIP6 projections compared with historical periods. We also assessed drought return periods of multiple drought characteristics for each scenario by using the copula-based joint distribution. Based on the joint analysis of duration, severity, and affected area for meteorological drought, both the or and and return periods in the future indicated increased risks. Under global warming, extreme drought events with long duration, high intensity, and extended affected area were shown to occur more frequently in the future, especially under the SSP585 scenario. These results can aid the understanding and characterization of drought events for drought risk management under global warming.
英文关键词	Drought events identification Spatiotemporal variation Copula Drought return period
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000663329900012
WOS关键词	BIAS CORRECTION METHODS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHTS ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; RIVER-BASIN ; COPULA ; SEVERITY ; DURATION ; RISK ; PRECIPITATION
WOS类目	Agronomy ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Water Resources
来源机构	北京师范大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/349346
作者单位	[Xu, Yang; Zhang, Xuan; Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Li, Chong] Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Water Sci, Beijing Key Lab Urban Hydrol Cycle & Sponge City, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, Yang,Zhang, Xuan,Hao, Zengchao,et al. Projections of future meteorological droughts in China under CMIP6 from a three-dimensional perspective[J]. 北京师范大学,2021,252.
APA	Xu, Yang,Zhang, Xuan,Hao, Zengchao,Hao, Fanghua,&Li, Chong.(2021).Projections of future meteorological droughts in China under CMIP6 from a three-dimensional perspective.AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT,252.
MLA	Xu, Yang,et al."Projections of future meteorological droughts in China under CMIP6 from a three-dimensional perspective".AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT 252(2021).