干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Modeling pastoralist movement in response to environmental variables and conflict in Somaliland: Combining agent-based modeling and geospatial data

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DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0244185
	Modeling pastoralist movement in response to environmental variables and conflict in Somaliland: Combining agent-based modeling and geospatial data
	Nelson, Erica L.; Khan, Saira A.; Thorve, Swapna; Greenough, P. Gregg
通讯作者	Nelson, EL (corresponding author), Harvard Univ, Harvard Humanitarian Initiat, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. ; Nelson, EL (corresponding author), Harvard Med Sch, Brigham & Womens Hosp, Dept Emergency Med, Div Global Emergency Med & Humanitarian Programs, Boston, MA 02115 USA.
来源期刊	PLOS ONE
ISSN	1932-6203
出版年	2020
卷号	15 期号:12
英文摘要	Pastoralism is widely practiced in arid lands and is the primary means of livelihood for approximately 268 million people across Africa. Environmental, interpersonal, and transactional variables such as vegetation and water availability, conflict, ethnic tensions, and private/public land delineation influence the movements of these populations. The challenges of climate change and conflict are widely felt by nomadic pastoralists in Somalia, where resources are scarce, natural disasters are increasingly common, and protracted conflict has plagued communities for decades. Bereft of real-time data, researchers and programmatic personnel often turn to post hoc analysis to understand the interaction between climate, conflict, and migration, and design programs to address the needs of nomadic pastoralists. By designing an Agent-Based Model to simulate the movement of nomadic pastoralists based on typologically-diverse, historical data of environmental, interpersonal, and transactional variables in Somaliland and Puntland between 2008 and 2018, this study explores how pastoralists respond to changing environments. Through subsequent application of spatial analysis such as choropleth maps, kernel density mapping, and standard deviational ellipses, we characterize the resultant pastoralist population distribution in response to these variables. Outcomes demonstrate a large scale spatio-temporal trend of pastoralists migrating to the southeast of the study area with high density areas in the south of Nugaal, the northwest of Sool, and along the Ethiopian border. While minimal inter-seasonal variability is seen, multiple analyses support the consolidation of pastoralists to specifically favorable regions. Exploration of the large-scale population, climate, and conflict trends allows for cogent narratives and associative hypotheses regarding the pastoralist migration during the study period. While this model produces compelling associations between pastoralist movements and terrestrial and conflict variables, it relies heavily on assumptions and incomplete data that are not necessarily representative of realities on the ground. Given the paucity of data regarding pastoralist decision-making and migration, validation remains challenging.
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000605651300072
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/349121
作者单位	[Nelson, Erica L.; Khan, Saira A.; Greenough, P. Gregg] Harvard Univ, Harvard Humanitarian Initiat, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; [Nelson, Erica L.; Greenough, P. Gregg] Harvard Med Sch, Brigham & Womens Hosp, Dept Emergency Med, Div Global Emergency Med & Humanitarian Programs, Boston, MA 02115 USA; [Khan, Saira A.; Greenough, P. Gregg] Harvard Univ, Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Boston, MA 02115 USA; [Thorve, Swapna] Univ Virginia, Dept Comp Sci, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nelson, Erica L.,Khan, Saira A.,Thorve, Swapna,et al. Modeling pastoralist movement in response to environmental variables and conflict in Somaliland: Combining agent-based modeling and geospatial data[J],2020,15(12).
APA	Nelson, Erica L.,Khan, Saira A.,Thorve, Swapna,&Greenough, P. Gregg.(2020).Modeling pastoralist movement in response to environmental variables and conflict in Somaliland: Combining agent-based modeling and geospatial data.PLOS ONE,15(12).
MLA	Nelson, Erica L.,et al."Modeling pastoralist movement in response to environmental variables and conflict in Somaliland: Combining agent-based modeling and geospatial data".PLOS ONE 15.12(2020).