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DOI	10.3354/cr01604
	Koppen's climate classification projections for the Iberian Peninsula
	Andrade, Cristina; Contente, Joana
通讯作者	Andrade, C (corresponding author), Polytech Inst Tomar, Nat Hazards Res Ctr, Estr Serra, P-2300313 Tomar, Portugal. ; Andrade, C (corresponding author), Univ Tras Os Montes & Alto Douro, Ctr Res & Technol Agroenvironm & Biol Sci CITAB, POB 1013, P-5001801 Vila Real, Portugal.
来源期刊	CLIMATE RESEARCH
ISSN	0936-577X
EISSN	1616-1572
出版年	2020
卷号	81 页码:71-89
英文摘要	Projections of Koppen-Geiger climate classifications under future climate change for the Iberian Peninsula are investigated using a 7-ensemble mean of regional climate models obtained from EURO-CORDEX. Maps with predicted future scenarios for temperature, precipitation and Koppen-Geiger classification are analyzed for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Iberia. Widespread statistically significant shifts in temperature, precipitation and climate regimes are projected in the 2041-2070 period, with greater shifts occurring under RCP8.5. An overall increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in the south-southeast is predicted. Of the two climate types, dry (B) and temperate (C), the dominant one was C in 86% of Iberia for 1961-1990, predicted to decrease by 8.0% by 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 (9.5% under RCP8.5). The hot-summer Mediterranean climate (CSa) will progressively replace CSb (warm-summer climate) in the northwestern half of Iberia until 2070. This shift, depicted by the SSIM index, is particularly noticeable in Portugal, with the projected establishment of the CSa climate by 2041-2070. The predicted retreat of humid subtropical (Cf a) and temperate oceanic (Cfb) areas in the northeast towards the Pyrenees region is noteworthy, as is the increase of desert (BW) and semi-desert (BS) climates (7.8 and 9%) in the southeast (between Granada and Valencia). Climate types BSh and BWh (hot semi-desert and hot desert, respectively), non-existent in the 1961-1990 period, are projected to represent 2.8% of the territory in 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 (5% under RCP8.5). The statistically significant projected changes hint at the disappearance of some vegetation species in certain regions of Iberia, with an expected increase in steppe, bush, grassland and wasteland vegetation cover, typical of dry climates in the southeast.
英文关键词	Koppen-Geiger climate classification Climate change Projections Iberian Peninsula SSIM index EURO-CORDEX
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000651526900006
WOS关键词	LONG-TERM ; TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ; MEDITERRANEAN REGION ; STORM TRACK ; WORLD MAP ; IMPACTS ; SHIFTS ; MODEL ; EUROPE ; CMIP5
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/348785
作者单位	[Andrade, Cristina; Contente, Joana] Polytech Inst Tomar, Nat Hazards Res Ctr, Estr Serra, P-2300313 Tomar, Portugal; [Andrade, Cristina] Univ Tras Os Montes & Alto Douro, Ctr Res & Technol Agroenvironm & Biol Sci CITAB, POB 1013, P-5001801 Vila Real, Portugal
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Andrade, Cristina,Contente, Joana. Koppen's climate classification projections for the Iberian Peninsula[J],2020,81:71-89.
APA	Andrade, Cristina,&Contente, Joana.(2020).Koppen's climate classification projections for the Iberian Peninsula.CLIMATE RESEARCH,81,71-89.
MLA	Andrade, Cristina,et al."Koppen's climate classification projections for the Iberian Peninsula".CLIMATE RESEARCH 81(2020):71-89.