干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Development in a Closed Groundwater-Driven Basin: A Case Study of the Siwa Region, Western Desert of Egypt

Arid

DOI	10.3390/su13031578
	Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Development in a Closed Groundwater-Driven Basin: A Case Study of the Siwa Region, Western Desert of Egypt
	Moghazy, Noha H.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.
通讯作者	Moghazy, NH (corresponding author), Utah State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Logan, UT 84322 USA. ; Moghazy, NH (corresponding author), Alexandria Univ, Fac Engn, Irrigat Engn & Hydraul Dept, Alexandria 21544, Egypt.
来源期刊	SUSTAINABILITY
EISSN	2071-1050
出版年	2021
卷号	13 期号:3
英文摘要	The Siwa region located in the Western Desert of Egypt has 30,000 acres available for reclamation as a part of a national project to increase agricultural production. This study addressed the climate change-driven long-term concerns of developing an agricultural project in this region where groundwater from the non-renewable Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) is the only source of water. Different climate models were used under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs); RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Projected seasonal temperatures show that the maximum increase in summer is 1.68 +/- 1.64 degrees C in 2060 and 4.65 +/- 1.82 degrees C in 2100 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The increase in water requirement for crops is estimated around 6-8.1% under RCP 4.5 while around 9.7-18.2% under RCP 8.5. Maximum reductions of strategic crop yields vary from 2.9% to 12.8% in 2060 under RCP 4.5, while from 10.4% to 27.4% in 2100 under RCP 8.5. Project goals are feasible until 2100 under RCP 4.5 but only until 2080 with RCP 8.5. When an optimization analysis was conducted, these goals are possible from 2080 to 2100 by modified land allocation. The proposed methodology is useful to project impact of climate change anywhere such that management and adaptation options can be proposed for sustainable agricultural development.
英文关键词	Siwa region Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System climate change climate models RCPs
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000615647400001
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/348226
作者单位	[Moghazy, Noha H.] Utah State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Logan, UT 84322 USA; [Moghazy, Noha H.] Alexandria Univ, Fac Engn, Irrigat Engn & Hydraul Dept, Alexandria 21544, Egypt; [Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.] Utah State Univ, Coll Engn, Logan, UT 84322 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Moghazy, Noha H.,Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.. Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Development in a Closed Groundwater-Driven Basin: A Case Study of the Siwa Region, Western Desert of Egypt[J],2021,13(3).
APA	Moghazy, Noha H.,&Kaluarachchi, Jagath J..(2021).Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Development in a Closed Groundwater-Driven Basin: A Case Study of the Siwa Region, Western Desert of Egypt.SUSTAINABILITY,13(3).
MLA	Moghazy, Noha H.,et al."Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Development in a Closed Groundwater-Driven Basin: A Case Study of the Siwa Region, Western Desert of Egypt".SUSTAINABILITY 13.3(2021).