Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.3390/su13031578 |
Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Development in a Closed Groundwater-Driven Basin: A Case Study of the Siwa Region, Western Desert of Egypt | |
Moghazy, Noha H.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J. | |
通讯作者 | Moghazy, NH (corresponding author), Utah State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Logan, UT 84322 USA. ; Moghazy, NH (corresponding author), Alexandria Univ, Fac Engn, Irrigat Engn & Hydraul Dept, Alexandria 21544, Egypt. |
来源期刊 | SUSTAINABILITY
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EISSN | 2071-1050 |
出版年 | 2021 |
卷号 | 13期号:3 |
英文摘要 | The Siwa region located in the Western Desert of Egypt has 30,000 acres available for reclamation as a part of a national project to increase agricultural production. This study addressed the climate change-driven long-term concerns of developing an agricultural project in this region where groundwater from the non-renewable Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) is the only source of water. Different climate models were used under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs); RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Projected seasonal temperatures show that the maximum increase in summer is 1.68 +/- 1.64 degrees C in 2060 and 4.65 +/- 1.82 degrees C in 2100 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The increase in water requirement for crops is estimated around 6-8.1% under RCP 4.5 while around 9.7-18.2% under RCP 8.5. Maximum reductions of strategic crop yields vary from 2.9% to 12.8% in 2060 under RCP 4.5, while from 10.4% to 27.4% in 2100 under RCP 8.5. Project goals are feasible until 2100 under RCP 4.5 but only until 2080 with RCP 8.5. When an optimization analysis was conducted, these goals are possible from 2080 to 2100 by modified land allocation. The proposed methodology is useful to project impact of climate change anywhere such that management and adaptation options can be proposed for sustainable agricultural development. |
英文关键词 | Siwa region Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System climate change climate models RCPs |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
开放获取类型 | gold |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000615647400001 |
WOS类目 | Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/348226 |
作者单位 | [Moghazy, Noha H.] Utah State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Logan, UT 84322 USA; [Moghazy, Noha H.] Alexandria Univ, Fac Engn, Irrigat Engn & Hydraul Dept, Alexandria 21544, Egypt; [Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.] Utah State Univ, Coll Engn, Logan, UT 84322 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Moghazy, Noha H.,Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.. Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Development in a Closed Groundwater-Driven Basin: A Case Study of the Siwa Region, Western Desert of Egypt[J],2021,13(3). |
APA | Moghazy, Noha H.,&Kaluarachchi, Jagath J..(2021).Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Development in a Closed Groundwater-Driven Basin: A Case Study of the Siwa Region, Western Desert of Egypt.SUSTAINABILITY,13(3). |
MLA | Moghazy, Noha H.,et al."Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Development in a Closed Groundwater-Driven Basin: A Case Study of the Siwa Region, Western Desert of Egypt".SUSTAINABILITY 13.3(2021). |
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