干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Impacts of two types of errors on the predictability of terrestrial carbon cycle

Arid

DOI	10.1002/ecs2.3315
	Impacts of two types of errors on the predictability of terrestrial carbon cycle
	Sun, Guodong; Mu, Mu
通讯作者	Sun, GD (corresponding author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. ; Sun, GD (corresponding author), Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	ECOSPHERE
ISSN	2150-8925
出版年	2021
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Initial errors and model parameter errors are two of the main factors that produce uncertainties in numerical simulations and predictions. It is crucial to determine in advance which of these types of errors should be reduced to improve numerical simulations and increase their prediction skill. In this study, a fundamental issue related to studies of the predictability about terrestrial carbon cycle is discussed. The relative importance of initial errors and model parameter errors in causing the prediction uncertainty of net primary production (NPP), which is part of the terrestrial carbon cycle, is assessed. The errors in NPP predictions related to initial errors and parameter errors are evaluated within the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach for these two types of errors (CNOP-I and CNOP-P, respectively). This method explores the upper bounds of the prediction errors caused by initial errors and model parameter errors at a particular time in the future. The contributions of initial errors and model parameter errors to NPP prediction uncertainty are found to depend on climate backgrounds and the prediction timescale. For the moist and semimoist regions of China, initial errors play a more important role than model parameter errors in the prediction uncertainty of NPP for short prediction times. As the prediction time scale increases, model parameter errors lead to large errors in NPP predictions. However, in the arid and semiarid regions of China, the uncertainty in NPP predictions caused by model parameter errors is always larger than that caused by initial errors. The above results can be explained by analyzing variations in photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration. The numerical results also suggest that the skill of predictions of the terrestrial carbon cycle may be improved by reducing the different types of errors for different climatic regions and prediction timescales.
英文关键词	carbon cycle CNOP approach initial errors model parameter errors predictability prediction uncertainty terrestrial ecosystems
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000614109800013
WOS类目	Ecology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	中国科学院大气物理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/347832
作者单位	[Sun, Guodong] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; [Sun, Guodong] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; [Mu, Mu] Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai 200438, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun, Guodong,Mu, Mu. Impacts of two types of errors on the predictability of terrestrial carbon cycle[J]. 中国科学院大气物理研究所,2021,12(1).
APA	Sun, Guodong,&Mu, Mu.(2021).Impacts of two types of errors on the predictability of terrestrial carbon cycle.ECOSPHERE,12(1).
MLA	Sun, Guodong,et al."Impacts of two types of errors on the predictability of terrestrial carbon cycle".ECOSPHERE 12.1(2021).