干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Evidence for a Causal Relationship between the Solar Cycle and Locust Abundance

Arid

DOI	10.3390/agronomy11010069
	Evidence for a Causal Relationship between the Solar Cycle and Locust Abundance
	Cheke, Robert A.; Young, Stephen; Wang, Xia; Tratalos, Jamie A.; Tang, Sanyi; Cressman, Keith
通讯作者	Cheke, RA (corresponding author), Univ Greenwich Medway, Nat Resources Inst, Cent Ave, Chatham ME4 4TB, Kent, England.
来源期刊	AGRONOMY-BASEL
EISSN	2073-4395
出版年	2021
卷号	11 期号:1
英文摘要	Time series of abundance indices for Desert Locusts Schistocerca gregaria (Forskal 1775) and Oriental Migratory Locusts Locusta migratoria manilensis (Meyen 1835) were analysed independently and in relation to measures of solar activity and ocean oscillation systems. Data were compiled on the numbers of territories infested with swarms of the Desert Locust from 1860-2015 and an inferred series that compensated for poor reporting in the 1860 to 1925 period. In addition, data for 1930 to 2014, when reports are considered to have been consistently reliable were converted to numbers of 1 degrees grid squares infested with swarms and separated according to four different geographical regions. Spectral analysis to test the hypothesis that there are cycles in the locust dynamics revealed periodicities of 7.5 and 13.5 years for the inferred series that were significant according to the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck state-space (OUSS) test. Similar periodicities were evident in the 1 degrees grid square data and in each of the regions but even though these were significantly different from white noise, they were not significant according to the OUSS criterion. There were no significant peaks in the Oriental Migratory Locust results with the OUSS test, but the data were significantly different from white noise. To test hypotheses that long term trends in the locust dynamics are driven by solar activity and/or oceanic oscillation systems (the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)), the original locust data series and their Kalman-filtered low frequency (LF) components were tested for causality using both spectral coherence tests and convergent cross mapping. Statistically significant evidence was found that solar activity measured by numbers of sunspot groups drive the dynamics, especially the LF components, of both species. In addition, causal links were inferred between both the SOI and NAO data and Desert Locust dynamics. Spectral coherence was also found between sunspot groups and the NAO, the IOD and LF SOI data. The data were also analysed showing that the LF SOI had causal links with the LF inferred Desert Locust series. In addition, the LF NAO was causally linked to the LF 1 degrees grid square data, with the NAO for December-March being most influential. The results suggest that solar activity plays a role in driving locust abundance, but that the mechanisms by which this happens, and whether they are mediated by fluctuations in oceanic systems, is unclear. Furthermore, they offer hope that information on these phenomena might enable a better early warning forecasting of Desert Locust upsurges.
英文关键词	Desert Locust Schistocerca gregaria (Forskå l 1775) Oriental Migratory Locust Locusta migratoria manilensis (Meyen 1835) spectral analysis Kalman filter spectral coherence convergence cross mapping sunspot groups ENSO SOI IOD NAO
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Accepted, gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000609647900001
WOS类目	Agronomy ; Plant Sciences
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Plant Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/347681
作者单位	[Cheke, Robert A.; Young, Stephen] Univ Greenwich Medway, Nat Resources Inst, Cent Ave, Chatham ME4 4TB, Kent, England; [Wang, Xia; Tang, Sanyi] Shaanxi Normal Univ, Sch Math & Informat Sci, Xian 710119, Peoples R China; [Tratalos, Jamie A.] Univ Coll, Sch Vet Med, Ctr Vet Epidemiol & Risk Anal, Dublin 4, Ireland; [Cressman, Keith] Food & Agr Org United Nations, Viale Terme Caracalla, I-00153 Rome, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cheke, Robert A.,Young, Stephen,Wang, Xia,et al. Evidence for a Causal Relationship between the Solar Cycle and Locust Abundance[J],2021,11(1).
APA	Cheke, Robert A.,Young, Stephen,Wang, Xia,Tratalos, Jamie A.,Tang, Sanyi,&Cressman, Keith.(2021).Evidence for a Causal Relationship between the Solar Cycle and Locust Abundance.AGRONOMY-BASEL,11(1).
MLA	Cheke, Robert A.,et al."Evidence for a Causal Relationship between the Solar Cycle and Locust Abundance".AGRONOMY-BASEL 11.1(2021).