干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Influence of non-stationarity and auto-correlation of climatic records on spatio-temporal trend and seasonality analysis in a region with prevailing arid and semi-arid climate, Iran

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s40333-020-0100-z
	Influence of non-stationarity and auto-correlation of climatic records on spatio-temporal trend and seasonality analysis in a region with prevailing arid and semi-arid climate, Iran
	Mirdashtvan, Mahsa; Mohseni Saravi, Mohsen
通讯作者	Mirdashtvan, M (corresponding author), Univ Tehran, Coll Agr & Nat Resources, Fac Nat Resources, Dept Range & Watershed Management, Karaj 3158777871, Iran.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF ARID LAND
ISSN	1674-6767
EISSN	2194-7783
出版年	2020
卷号	12 期号:6 页码:964-983
英文摘要	Trend and stationarity analysis of climatic variables are essential for understanding climate variability and provide useful information about the vulnerability and future changes, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, various climatic zones of Iran were investigated to assess the relationship between the trend and the stationarity of the climatic variables. The Mann-Kendall test was considered to identify the trend, while the trend free pre-whitening approach was applied for eliminating serial correlation from the time-series. Meanwhile, time series stationarity was tested by Dickey-Fuller and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin tests. The results indicated an increasing trend for mean air temperature series at most of the stations over various climatic zones, however, after eliminating the serial correlation factor, this increasing trend changes to an insignificant decreasing trend at a 95% confidence level. The seasonal mean air temperature trend suggested a significant increase in the majority of the stations. The mean air temperature increased more in northwest towards central parts of Iran that mostly located in arid and semiarid climatic zones. Precipitation trend reveals an insignificant downward trend in most of the series over various climatic zones; furthermore, most of the stations follow a decreasing trend for seasonal precipitation. Furthermore, spatial patterns of trend and seasonality of precipitation and mean air temperature showed that the northwest parts of Iran and margin areas of the Caspian Sea are more vulnerable to the changing climate with respect to the precipitation shortfalls and warming. Stationarity analysis indicated that the stationarity of climatic series influences on their trend; so that, the series which have significant trends are not static. The findings of this investigation can help planners and policy-makers in various fields related to climatic issues, implementing better management and planning strategies to adapt to climate change and variability over Iran.
英文关键词	climate change trend analysis stationarity tests serial correlation seasonality arid and semi-arid regions
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Bronze
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000604859500003
WOS关键词	TIME-SERIES ; STATISTICAL TESTS ; STREAMFLOW TRENDS ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABLES ; EXTREMES ; BASIN
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/347605
作者单位	[Mirdashtvan, Mahsa; Mohseni Saravi, Mohsen] Univ Tehran, Coll Agr & Nat Resources, Fac Nat Resources, Dept Range & Watershed Management, Karaj 3158777871, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mirdashtvan, Mahsa,Mohseni Saravi, Mohsen. Influence of non-stationarity and auto-correlation of climatic records on spatio-temporal trend and seasonality analysis in a region with prevailing arid and semi-arid climate, Iran[J],2020,12(6):964-983.
APA	Mirdashtvan, Mahsa,&Mohseni Saravi, Mohsen.(2020).Influence of non-stationarity and auto-correlation of climatic records on spatio-temporal trend and seasonality analysis in a region with prevailing arid and semi-arid climate, Iran.JOURNAL OF ARID LAND,12(6),964-983.
MLA	Mirdashtvan, Mahsa,et al."Influence of non-stationarity and auto-correlation of climatic records on spatio-temporal trend and seasonality analysis in a region with prevailing arid and semi-arid climate, Iran".JOURNAL OF ARID LAND 12.6(2020):964-983.