Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 项目编号 | 41501049 |
| 基于过程模型的天山北坡树轮多指标气候响应与树木生长预测 | |
| 徐国保 | |
| 主持机构 | 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 |
| 开始日期 | 2016 |
| 结束日期 | 2018 |
| 资助经费 | 250000(CNY) |
| 项目类别 | 青年科学基金项目 |
| 资助机构 | CN-NSFC（国家自然科学基金） |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 英文简介 | Tree growth is influenced by both climatic and non-climatic factors. The relationships between tree growth and the climatic factors were not always stable and linear, and the main limiting climatic factor will altered in tree growth and stable isotope fractionation under the water-heat balance along the time evolution, which may lead to uniformitarian principle invalidation partly in climate reconstruction. MAIDENiso forward process model considered the nonlinear relationship between tree growth and climate. In this model, climatic factors and environmental factors, such as CO2 concentration, was used as the driven factors to simulate the tree-ring width and tree-ring cellulose δ13C and δ18O. The forward process model could greatly reveal the responses between climate change and tree-ring proxies, and the forward process model can use to predict the tree-ring growth. A inverse model could be established by comparison the simulation results based on forward process model with the actual measuremental value. The backward model can be used to reconstruct past climate change accurately. In this study, the MAIDENiso process model will be used to simulate the tree-ring width, tree-ring cellulose δ13C and δ18O in the north slope of the central Tianshan Mountains. The monte carlo parametric test method will be used to calibrate model parameters. The aims of the study is to 1) reveal the relationships between climatic and non-climatic factors and tree-ring proxies and predict tree ring growth based on the MAIDENiso process model; 2) to establish a backward model on the base of MAIDENiso process model; 3) to separate the contribution of climatic and no-climatic factors (e.g., CO2 concentration increase) in climate reconstruction; 4) to reconstruct the past climate change more accurately and to assess the uncertainty. The successful application of this method has important significance for the palaeo-climate research and forest ecosystem dynamics studies. |
| 中文关键词 | 树轮 ; 过程模型 ; 稳定同位素 ; 气候重建 ; 树木生长 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 |
| 资源类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/346996 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 徐国保.基于过程模型的天山北坡树轮多指标气候响应与树木生长预测.2016. |
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