Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 项目编号 | 41401023 |
| 基于参数移植误差的无资料地区径流模拟不确定性评估 | |
| 鲍振鑫 | |
| 主持机构 | 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 |
| 开始日期 | 2015 |
| 结束日期 | 2017 |
| 资助经费 | 260000(CNY) |
| 项目类别 | 青年科学基金项目 |
| 资助机构 | CN-NSFC（国家自然科学基金） |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 英文简介 | Predictions in Ungauged Basins has become a hot issue for hydrologists over the world. The overall object of the project is to estimate the model parameters and to assess the uncertainty of streamflow simulation in the ungauged basins. The typical sub-catchments in the Hai River basins are taken as the study areas. The two key scientific problems of the project are: the physical relationship between catchment characteristics and model parameters, and the impact of the error of parameters regionalization on the uncertainty of streamflow simulation. Based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, using integrated approaches of observed data analysis, field investigation, statistics-based analysis, numerical experiment and simulation, etc, the specific research targets of the project are as follows: 1) based on the mechanism of soil water moving and principle of hydraulics, to construct a framework for estimation of model parameters with obvious physical means using the catchment characteristics; 2) to study the model parameters regionalization approach, using the similarity-based methodology; 3) using moments method and curve fitting methodology, to analyze the statistical characters of the errors of parameters regionalization; 4) to assess the uncertainty of streamflow simulation in the ungauged basins, using the ensemble prediction method. The expected achievements of the project will not only rich the knowledge of hydrology, climatology & geomorphology, and improve the hydrologic simulation technology, but also be of significance for water resources prediction, planning & management. |
| 来源机构 | 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 |
| 资源类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/346797 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 鲍振鑫.基于参数移植误差的无资料地区径流模拟不确定性评估.2015. |
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