Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 项目编号 | 41361093 |
| 气候变化背景下新疆水文灾害风险评估 | |
| 孙桂丽 | |
| 主持机构 | 新疆农业大学 |
| 开始日期 | 2014 |
| 结束日期 | 2017 |
| 资助经费 | 460000(CNY) |
| 项目类别 | 地区科学基金项目 |
| 资助机构 | CN-NSFC（国家自然科学基金） |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 英文简介 | Due to the influence of global climate change, natural disaster especially on hydrological disasters,in arid region,is becoming more and more serious.Instability and sudden of hydrological disasters increased significantly.So the research mainly analyze the relationship of hydrological disaster risk assessment and climate change in arid region based on the traditional mathematics probability theory, system theory, fuzzy mathematics theory, by means of quantitative research, analysis technology and method as the means such as principle companent analysis, fuzzy mathematics, AHP method, GA-PP model and Monte Carlo method. This study discussed the type, composition and characteristic of hydrological disaster based on systematic analysis of the structure of arid region system on climate change. We analyze the composition and characteristics of hydrological disaster risk system from disaster factor hazard, hazard-bearing bodies vulnerability, exposure and disaster formative environments, and proposed the method and technological process of risk assessment of hydrological disaster risk assessment on climate change in Xinjiang. After further investigating the the hydrological disasters and disaster risk formation mechanism, we construct the risk assessment theory frame, index system, method and the model of risk assessment on climate change, and we calculate the risk rank and draw the corresponding risk figure by means of GIS. This study provides the general procedure and calculation method of systematic analysis and decision, and it can be seen from the model calculation conditions that it is universally applicable for sorting and assessment problems in arid region based on climate change. The results can also enrich and develop hydrological disaster risk management theory basis and method system, and has very important scientific value and realistic meaning on building better security protection system to achieve hydrological disaster prevention, mitigation and disaster management as well as socio_economic stability and sustainable development in the arid region. |
| 中文关键词 | 风险评估 ; 水文灾害 ; 新疆 ; 气候变化 |
| 来源机构 | 新疆农业大学 |
| 资源类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/344240 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 孙桂丽.气候变化背景下新疆水文灾害风险评估.2014. |
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