干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Analysis and prediction of annual precipitation values in Cyprus

Arid

DOI	10.5004/dwt.2020.25088
	Analysis and prediction of annual precipitation values in Cyprus
	Gokcekus, Huseyin; Kiral, Ersin; Kiral, Gulsen; Eini, Nima; Uzun, Berna
通讯作者	Uzun, B (corresponding author), Near East Univ, Res Ctr Expt Hlth Sci, POB 99138,Mersin 10, Nicosia, Trnc, Turkey. ; Uzun, B (corresponding author), Near East Univ, Fac Arts & Sci, POB 99138,Mersin 10, Nicosia, Trnc, Turkey.
会议名称	2nd International Conference on Water Problems in the Mediterranean Countries (WPMC)
会议日期	MAY 06-10, 2019
会议地点	Near E Univ, Lefkosa, CYPRUS
英文摘要	This present work studies the prediction of water resource quantity in Cyprus by using the mathematical technique called the Markov chains of the fuzzy states (MCFS) prediction method. This region is considered as a poor water country in Europe with a semi-arid climate that also has a frequent occurrence of drought and limited water resources that are mainly dependent on rainfall. Cyprus is suffering from unevenly distributed rainfall and small catchments, where extreme drought events are suspected due to climate change. The water policy in Cyprus is based on two pillars: sustainable development of water resources and water demand management. Around 1970 changes in the rainfall pattern in addition to population growth led to critical situations in many aquifers, which deteriorated due to the intrusion of seawater intrusion into the aquifer. Hence, the estimation of water resource values and water consumption for the following decades is important to implement effective management plants. By collecting and analyzing 100 years of standardized precipitation index data the future expected precipitation probabilities of the island of Cyprus were estimated using Markov chains (MC) and MCFS analysis. For this purpose, the inter-state transition probability matrix of the system has been determined and long-term equilibrium vectors have been calculated to determine the stability of the system. This study shows that the use of the MCFS gives more sensitive results for the prediction of future precipitation than the classical MC model.
英文关键词	Annual precipitation Rainfall Markov chain of the fuzzy states Stochastic processes Water resource management
来源出版物	DESALINATION AND WATER TREATMENT
ISSN	1944-3994
EISSN	1944-3986
出版年	2020
卷号	177
页码	275-282
出版者	DESALINATION PUBL
类型	Article; Proceedings Paper
语种	英语
收录类别	CPCI-S
WOS记录号	WOS:000544993600028
WOS关键词	MARKOV-CHAIN MODEL ; FLOOD PREDICTION ; RAINFALL ; ERROR ; UNCERTAINTY ; REGION
WOS类目	Engineering, Chemical ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Water Resources
资源类型	会议论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/337039
作者单位	[Gokcekus, Huseyin; Eini, Nima] Near East Univ, Fac Civil & Environm Engn, POB 99138,Mersin 10, Nicosia, Trnc, Turkey; [Kiral, Ersin; Kiral, Gulsen] Cukurova Univ, Dept Econometr, Fac Econ & Adm Sci, POB 01330, Adana, Turkey; [Uzun, Berna] Near East Univ, Res Ctr Expt Hlth Sci, POB 99138,Mersin 10, Nicosia, Trnc, Turkey; [Uzun, Berna] Near East Univ, Fac Arts & Sci, POB 99138,Mersin 10, Nicosia, Trnc, Turkey
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gokcekus, Huseyin,Kiral, Ersin,Kiral, Gulsen,et al. Analysis and prediction of annual precipitation values in Cyprus[C]:DESALINATION PUBL,2020:275-282.