干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 冰冻圈水资源对中国社会经济的重要性: 基于多级流域尺度分析

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	冰冻圈水资源对中国社会经济的重要性: 基于多级流域尺度分析
其他题名	Importance of cryosphere water resources to China's socio-economy: Based on multi-level basins analysis
	黄怡; 效存德; 苏勃; 许章华
来源期刊	科学通报
ISSN	0023-074X
出版年	2020
卷号	65 期号:24 页码:2636-2650
中文摘要	冰冻圈水资源为全球寒区旱区生态安全和社会经济发展提供重要保障.随着气候变暖导致冰冻圈水资源供给变化以及社会经济增长对水资源需求增加,区域水资源短缺风险不断加剧.鉴于此,加强冰冻圈水资源与社会经济关联研究至关重要.本研究首先在三级流域尺度上系统分析了中国冰冻圈水资源的空间分布特征及其影响区人口和GDP时空变化格局,然后进一步综合供给和需求两侧指标,评估了冰冻圈水资源对社会经济的重要性.结果表明: (1)中国冰冻圈及其影响区共涵盖7个一级流域、38个二级流域和84个三级流域. (2)从冰冻圈要素的重要性看,塔里木河、羌塘高原以及雅鲁藏布江等流域冰川面积和储量较大,青藏高原腹地和松花江流域多年冻土覆盖率较高,松花江区、新疆北部以及青藏高原西南部平均积雪深度较大. (3)以2015年为基准,计算得到冰冻圈水资源重要影响区人口和GDP分别约为2.63亿和11.4万亿元,分别占全国23.1%和16.5%,主要分布在我国一、二级地形阶梯分界线的东南部和北部以及三级阶梯北部; 1995~2015年间冰冻圈重要影响区人口占全国比重增加(由24.4%增为26.8%), GDP占全国比重下降(由21%降为19%). (4)冰冻圈水资源对中国社会经济的重要性与冰冻圈影响区社会经济规模在空间上基本一致,然而,青藏高原西南部虽然冰冻圈水资源供给功能强大,但因为社会经济规模很小,所以服务的现实作用有限.
英文摘要	Cryosphere water resources (CWR) play indispensable roles in ecological security and socio-economic development in cold and arid regions of the world. The amount of melt water will continue to decrease once it reaches the maximum (peak water) due to climate change, while the sustainable and rapid development of socio-economy puts higher demand for water resources, which causes an increasing risk of regional water shortage. Therefore, a national assessment on the relationship between CWR and socio-economy is notable. The supply and demand of CWR are linked at the river basin scale, although the upper, middle and lower reaches of the river vary in the contribution of CWR to water availability. Here we analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of China's CWR and the spatial-temporal patterns of population and GDP in cryospherefed- areas (CFA) at three-level basins scale. Then we present an Importance Index, which ranks all basins in terms of their water-supplying role and the downstream dependence of socio-economy. We conclude that: (1) CFA covers 7 primary basins, 38 secondary basins and 84 tertiary basins in China. (2) The top three with large glacier reserves are Tarim River, Qiangtang Plateau and the Yalu Tsangpo River Basin. Central Tibetan Plateau and the Songhua River Basin have high permafrost coverage. Songhua River Basin, northern Xinjiang and the southwest of the Tibetan Plateau have large average snow depth. (3) In 2015, population and GDP in CFA are about 263 million and 11.4 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 23.1% and 16.5% of the total China, mainly distribute in the southeast and north of the boundary of the first and second steps and the north of the third step of topography of China. From 1995 to 2015, the proportion of population in the CFA increased from 24.4% to 26.8%, while the proportion of GDP in the whole country decreased from 21% to 19%. (4) For the CFA, the larger the socio-economic amounts, the higher the importance of water resources. However, the amount of water supply does not completely match the socio-economic distribution. Although the cryosphere water resources are abundant in the southwest of Tibetan Plateau, the socio-economic demand is small, representing a lower water service there. We have noticed that at the secondary basin scale, 26.8% of people were populated in the CFA, and nearly one-fifth (19%) of economic activities took place there in 2015. This indicates a lager dependence on CWR in socio-economy, especially in the arid northwest China. These conclusions quantitatively support the previous understanding. However, the multi-scale method we used can analyze the small watershed deeply. For example, the Huntai River Basin are of great importance due to its high water supply and demand index, which is conducive to guiding the optimal allocation of water resources and a deep understanding of the importance of water resources.
中文关键词	冰冻圈 ; 融水资源 ; 人口 ; 冰冻圈功能
英文关键词	GDP cryosphere cryosphere melt water resources population GDP cryospheric functions
类型	Article
语种	中文
开放获取类型	Bronze
收录类别	CSCD
WOS研究方向	Engineering
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6818524
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/336986
作者单位	黄怡, 北京师范大学;;福州大学环境与资源学院, 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室;;, ;;福州, 北京;; 100875;;350108, 中国.; 效存德, 北京师范大学, 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875, 中国.; 苏勃, 北京师范大学, 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875, 中国.; 许章华, 福州大学环境与资源学院, 福州, 福建 350108, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	黄怡,效存德,苏勃,等. 冰冻圈水资源对中国社会经济的重要性: 基于多级流域尺度分析[J],2020,65(24):2636-2650.
APA	黄怡,效存德,苏勃,&许章华.(2020).冰冻圈水资源对中国社会经济的重要性: 基于多级流域尺度分析.科学通报,65(24),2636-2650.
MLA	黄怡,et al."冰冻圈水资源对中国社会经济的重要性: 基于多级流域尺度分析".科学通报 65.24(2020):2636-2650.