干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 中国21世纪气候变化的RegCM4多模拟集合预估

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	中国21世纪气候变化的RegCM4多模拟集合预估
其他题名	Climate change of the 21st century over China from the ensemble of RegCM4 simulations
	张冬峰; 高学杰
来源期刊	科学通报
ISSN	0023-074X
出版年	2020
卷号	65 期号:23 页码:2516-2526
中文摘要	基于一套RegCM4区域气候模式动力降尺度试验结果,进行了中国及不同分区在21世纪不同时期, RCP(典型浓度路径)4.5和8.5两种排放路径下的气候变化集合预估.试验中RegCM4在5个不同的CMIP5(耦合模式比较计划第五阶段)全球气候模式分别驱动下运行,水平分辨率为25 km*25 km.分析表明:未来中国范围内平均地面气温将普遍升高,其中冬季(12~2月)的青藏高原和夏季(6~8月)的西北干旱区升温幅度最大;相应的气温极端气候事件指数TXx(日最高气温最大值)和TNn(日最低气温最小值)升高.中国大部分地区冬季降水将增加,西北干旱区增加幅度最大,仅在云贵高原部分地区出现一定减少,模拟间一致性在中国北方较好;夏季降水在中国西部大部分地区、东北北部和黄淮增加,其他地区变化较小或略微减少;集合预估的日最大降水量(RX1day)在全国将普遍增加;连续无降水日数(CDD)在中国北方以一致缩短为主,南方则有所延长.相对于当代参照时段(1986~2005年), 21世纪中期RCP4.5和8.5下全国年平均气温分别上升1.6和2.2°C,降水分别增加4%和5%.各要素变化均随时间推移而增大, 21世纪末期两种排放情景下全国年平均气温分别上升2.4和4.6°C,降水分别增加5%和12%.
英文摘要	Climate change in the 21st century over China and its different sub-regions is investigated in the study, based on the ensemble of a set of dynamical downscaling experiments over East Asia. The model employed in the experiments is the International Center for Theoretical Physics' Regional Climate Model, version 4 (RegCM4), at 25-km grid spacing, driven by five different CMIP5 (phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) global models under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The model version used was customized for better performance over the region. Ten sub-regions of China were defined, with consideration paid to local economic and societal developments, vulnerability of ecosystems, and sensitivity to future climate changes. A substantial warming in the future in China is projected, and this warming is more pronounced over the Tibetan Plateau during DJF (December-January-February) and Northwest China (where dry climate prevails) during JJA (June-July- August). A broad increase in temperature extreme indicesNamely, TXx (annual maximum daily maximum surface air temperature) and TNn (annual minimum daily minimum surface air temperature)is reported, along with increased mean temperature. The results suggest more frequent and intense heat waves in the warm seasons, and thus more risks in terms of human health and mortality, over the sub-regions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze Delta, the Guangdong-Hong Kong- Macao Greater Bay Area, and the Cross-Taiwan Strait Coasts, with their dense cities and populations. Meanwhile, the warming over the Tibetan Plateau may lead to degradation of frozen soil and glacial melt, and thus a greater frequency of related geological hazards, while increased evapotranspiration following the warming over the Arid and Semi-arid Northwest and Losses Plateau sub-regions may worsen the situation with respect to water resource shortages. Precipitation change in DJF shows a prevailing increase in northern China, with good agreement among the ensemble members. The increase is largest in the Northwest China sub-region. In southern China, small changes with a slight decrease in the southern part of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau are found. In JJA, precipitation increases over western China, the northern part of Northeast China, and the Yellow-Huai River basins, and shows small changes over other areas. A general increase in the precipitation extreme index (RX1day, the annual maximum 1-day precipitation) is found over the whole country, indicating more extreme precipitation events in the future. For the CDD index (the largest number of consecutive days when the daily precipitation amount is less than 1 mm), a general increase in the north and a decrease in the south are found. Regarding the increases of heavy precipitation events, the Arid and Semi-arid Northwest and Losses and Tibetan Plateau sub-regions, with their fragile ecosystems, may experience relatively more landslide and debris flow events; while over the more populated sub-regions, special concern is needed with respect to the likely greater frequency and more intense nature of flooding and urban-flooding events. Quantitatively, the increases in annual mean temperature, TXx, and TNn in the mid-21st (2041-2060) century relative to the present day (1986-2005) over the whole of China under RCP4.5/RCP8.5 are 1.6/2.2°C, 1.7/2.2°C, and 1.9/2.7°C, respectively. For precipitation, RX1day, and CDD, the values of change are 4%/5%, 9%/12%, and both around -2 d, respectively. The changes become more pronounced with time. By the end of the 21st century (2081-2098), under the higher scenario of RCP8.5, the changes in annual mean temperature, TXx, TNn, precipitation, RX1day and CDD are 4.6, 4.7, 5.5°C, 12%, 25%, and -4 d, respectively. Finally, the deficiencies and uncertainties that remain in projecting the future climate over the region are also outlined and discussed in the paper.
中文关键词	气候变化 ; 区域气候模式 ; 集合预估 ; 中国不同分区
英文关键词	climate change regional climate model ensemble projection China and its different sub-regions
类型	Article
语种	中文
开放获取类型	Bronze
收录类别	CSCD
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6818511
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/336985
作者单位	张冬峰, 山西省气候中心, 太原, 山西 030006, 中国.; 高学杰, 中国科学院大气物理研究所气候变化研究中心;;中国科学院大学, ;;, ;;, 北京;;北京 100029;;100049, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	张冬峰,高学杰. 中国21世纪气候变化的RegCM4多模拟集合预估[J],2020,65(23):2516-2526.
APA	张冬峰,&高学杰.(2020).中国21世纪气候变化的RegCM4多模拟集合预估.科学通报,65(23),2516-2526.
MLA	张冬峰,et al."中国21世纪气候变化的RegCM4多模拟集合预估".科学通报 65.23(2020):2516-2526.