干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 气候变化情景下黑果枸杞的潜在地理分布

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	气候变化情景下黑果枸杞的潜在地理分布
其他题名	The potential geographical distribution of Lycium ruthenicum Murr under different climate change scenarios
	张亮; 魏彦强; 王金牛; 周强; 刘峰贵; 陈琼; 刘飞
来源期刊	应用与环境生物学报
ISSN	1006-687X
出版年	2020
卷号	26 期号:4 页码:969-978
中文摘要	黑果枸杞(Lycium ruthenicum Murr)是一种多年生、多棘刺灌木,具有丰富的药用、经济和生态价值.基于中国172个黑果枸杞样点和29个环境因子数据,运用MaxEnt模型,模拟预测黑果枸杞在当前、未来(2050s、2070s) RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5气候情景下的潜在地理分布,以刀切法(Jacknife)分析影响其分布的主要环境因子,并采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)对预测结果进行检验.结果表明:(1)MaxEnt模型能够较好地模拟预测黑果枸杞在我国的潜在分布范围.最湿月降水量、最冷季均温、最冷季降水量、表层土壤砾石含量、年均温、月平均日温差等因子是影响黑果枸杞分布的主要因素.(2)黑果枸杞潜在适宜分布区总面积约为111.942*10~4 km~2,主要分布在西北干旱地区沙漠绿洲过渡地带.(3)不同气候情境下,各等级适宜区面积存在明显差异性. RCP2.6情景下2050s、2070s总适宜区增加,RCP4.5情景下2050s增加、2070s减少,RCP8.5情景下2050s、2070s总适宜区减少.(4)空间叠加分析表明,未来黑果枸杞适宜区呈先增长后减少的变化趋势. 2050s黑果枸杞潜在适宜区向东部和东南部扩张,2070s潜在适宜区总体减少,并向北移动.综上所述,气候变化对黑果枸杞不同等级适宜区产生的影响不同,高适宜区分布范围相对较为稳定,可以适应未来气候变化;未来适宜区潜在分布范围及其空间迁移存在一定规律性,结果可为沙漠化治理和生态环境保护提供参考信息.
英文摘要	Lycium ruthenicum Murr is a perennial thorny shrub with abundant medicinal, economic, and ecological values. Based on the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model for species distribution that was used in 172 samples with precise latitudinal and longitudinal coordinates as well as 29 environmental variables in China, this study simulated and predicted the current and future potential distribution of Lycium ruthenicum Murr under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) scenarios in 2050 and 2070. The Jacknife method was used to analyze the main environmental factors that could affect the distribution, while the receiver-operating characteristic curve was used to test the predicted results. The MaxEnt predictions were found to be highly reliable and consistent with the reported sample distributions, while the highest monthly precipitation, coldest average season temperature, coldest season precipitation, surface soil gravel content, average annual temperature, and average daily temperature differences constituted the main environmental factors affecting Lycium ruthenicum Murr distribution. Hence, the most suitable growth area for Lycium ruthenicum Murr (111.942*10~4 km~2) is mainly distributed in the arid regions of the northwestern desert and oasis transition zone. Despite the clear differences in the areas of each suitable habitat under different climate scenarios, the total suitable habitat in the 2050s and 2070s increased and decreased under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively as well as increased and decreased in the 2050s and 2070s under the RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. The spatial overlay analysis demonstrated the increasing and decreasing trend in the suitable habitat of Lycium ruthenicum Murr, where the potential habitat areas for Lycium ruthenicum Murr will expand east and southeast in the 2050s, and then decrease and move northward in the 2070s. In summary, this study examined the different effects of climate change across different grades of suitable habitats, in which the distribution range of highly suitable habitats was relatively stable and can be adapted to future climate changes. The potential distribution range and spatial migration of future suitable habitats showed regularity, providing insights to desertification prevention and ecological and environmental protection.
中文关键词	黑果枸杞 ; 潜在地理分布 ; 适宜区 ; 气候情景 ; MaxEnt模型
英文关键词	Lycium ruthenicum Murr potential geographical distribution suitable area climate scenario MaxEnt model
类型	Article
语种	中文
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Agriculture
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6803986
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/336893
作者单位	张亮, 青海师范大学地理科学学院;;中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院, ;;甘肃省遥感重点实验室, 西宁;;兰州, ;; 810008;;730000.; 魏彦强, 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院, 甘肃省遥感重点实验室, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国.; 王金牛, 中国科学院成都生物研究所;;中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院, ;;冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 成都;;兰州, ;; 610041;;730000.; 周强, 青海师范大学地理科学学院, 西宁, 青海 810008, 中国.; 刘峰贵, 青海师范大学地理科学学院, 西宁, 青海 810008, 中国.; 陈琼, 青海师范大学地理科学学院, 西宁, 青海 810008, 中国.; 刘飞, 青海师范大学地理科学学院, 西宁, 青海 810008, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	张亮,魏彦强,王金牛,等. 气候变化情景下黑果枸杞的潜在地理分布[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2020,26(4):969-978.
APA	张亮.,魏彦强.,王金牛.,周强.,刘峰贵.,...&刘飞.(2020).气候变化情景下黑果枸杞的潜在地理分布.应用与环境生物学报,26(4),969-978.
MLA	张亮,et al."气候变化情景下黑果枸杞的潜在地理分布".应用与环境生物学报 26.4(2020):969-978.