干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于多模型集合预测尖萼红山茶物种分布

Arid

	基于多模型集合预测尖萼红山茶物种分布
其他题名	Prediction of Camellia edithae species distribution based on multi-model combination
	陈思斯; 刘想; 童鑫玥; 管毕财
来源期刊	生态科学
ISSN	1008-8873
出版年	2020
卷号	39 期号:2 页码:58-66
中文摘要	气候是影响生物多样性和物种分布的一个重要因素,近年来由于温室气体的大规模排放,气候正在快速的发生变化,对植物的分布影响巨大。研究采用山茶科山茶属尖萼红山茶(Camellia edithae Hance.)作为研究对象,通过实地考察和网上查阅获取其分布数据,从世界气候网站和兰州寒区旱区科学数据中心获取环境变量,结合R语言、Erdas和ArcGIS等软件对其当前和将来(2070)的分布区进行模拟并得出置信度和计算其面积变化和质心变化。研究结果表明,AUC值均大于0.9,属于非常好的预测,影响其分布的主要因子是Bio01(年平均温度)、Bio04(温度季节变化)、Bio15(降水量变异系数)和Bio03(昼夜温差与年温差比值)。在四种二氧化碳排放情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0及RCP8.5)所进行的预测均表明尖萼红山茶的分布面积均有收缩,且收缩面积随着碳排放程度的加剧而增加,且最大收缩面积占总面积的80%。通过对该物种质心变化的预测中发现,其总体呈现向北部迁移的趋势。通过本次的预测发现气候变化在未来可能对尖萼红山茶的生存威胁很大。
英文摘要	Climate is a major factor affecting biodiversity and species distribution. In recent years,due to the large-scale emission of greenhouse gases,the climate change has a great impact on the distribution of plants. In this study,Camellia edithae was used as the research object. The data and access of this field were used to obtain the distribution data. The environmental variables were obtained from the World Climate Website and Cold and Arid Regions Science Data Center at Lanzhou. The software of R,erdas,and ArcGIS were used to simulate the current and future (2070)distributions and derive confidence and calculate their area and centroid changes. The results show that all of the AUC values are greater than 0.9,which is a very good prediction. The main factors affecting the distribution are Bio01 (Mean annual temperature),Bio04(Temperature seasonality),Bio15 (Coefficient of variation of Precipitation seasonality)and Bio03 (Isothermality and annual temperature difference ratio). In four kind of different CO_2 emission scenarios (RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5),the result suggest that the distribution area of Camellia edithae Hance. has contracted,and the shrinkage area increases with the increase of carbon emission. The maximum shrinkage area accounts for 80% of the total area. The survival of tea may be very threatening. In addition,under the background of the shrinkage of the total area,its distribution also appears in a trend of moving toward the north as a whole.
中文关键词	尖萼红山茶 ; 物种分布模型 ; 面积变化 ; 质心变化
英文关键词	biomod2 Camellia edithae biomod2 species distribution model area change centroid changes
类型	Article
语种	中文
收录类别	CSCD
WOS研究方向	Plant Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6695810
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/336370
作者单位	陈思斯, 南昌大学生命科学学院, 南昌, 江西 330031, 中国.; 刘想, 南昌大学生命科学学院, 南昌, 江西 330031, 中国.; 童鑫玥, 南昌大学生命科学学院, 南昌, 江西 330031, 中国.; 管毕财, 南昌大学生命科学学院, 南昌, 江西 330031, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	陈思斯,刘想,童鑫玥,等. 基于多模型集合预测尖萼红山茶物种分布[J],2020,39(2):58-66.
APA	陈思斯,刘想,童鑫玥,&管毕财.(2020).基于多模型集合预测尖萼红山茶物种分布.生态科学,39(2),58-66.
MLA	陈思斯,et al."基于多模型集合预测尖萼红山茶物种分布".生态科学 39.2(2020):58-66.