干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): A cultivated area forecasting approach in artificial oases under climate change and human activities

Arid

	A cultivated area forecasting approach in artificial oases under climate change and human activities
	Zhang Shaobo; Chen Fulong; Chen Jie; Wang Jing; Li Shaofei; Long Aihua
来源期刊	Journal of Arid Land
ISSN	1674-6767
出版年	2019
卷号	11 期号:3 页码:400-418
英文摘要	The cultivated area in artificial oases is deeply influenced by global climate change and human activities. Thus, forecasting cultivated area in artificial oases under climate change and human activities is of great significance. In this study, an approach named GD-HM-PSWROAM, consisting of general circulation model downscaling (GD), hydrological model (HM), and planting structure and water resource optimal allocation model (PSWROAM), was developed and applied in the irrigation district of the Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China to forecast the cultivated area tendency. Furthermore, the catchment export of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model was set to the Kensiwate hydrological station. The results show that the downscaling effects of temperature can be fairly satisfying, while those of precipitation may be not satisfying but acceptable. Simulation capacity of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model on the discharge in the Kensiwate hydrological station can meet the requirements of running the PSWROAM. The accuracy of the PSWROAM indicated that this model can perform well in predicting the change of cultivated area at the decadal scale. The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin under current human activities may be generally decreasing due to the climate change. But the adverse effects of climate change can be weakened or even eliminated through positive human activities. The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin may even be increasing under assumed human activities and future climate scenarios. The effects of human activities in the future can be generally predicted and quantified according to the cultivated area trends under current human activities and the situations in the study area. Overall, it is rational and acceptable to forecast the cultivated area tendency in artificial oases under future climate change and human activities through the GD-HM-PSWROAM approach.
英文关键词	GCM downscaling hydrological model cultivated area climate change human activities Manas River Basin
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Bronze
收录类别	CSCD
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6533718
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/336142
作者单位	Zhang Shaobo, School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430081, China.; Chen Jie, School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430081, China.; Chen Fulong, College of Water Conservancy & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, China.; Wang Jing, College of Water Conservancy & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, China.; Li Shaofei, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tianjin Agricultural University, Tianjin 300384, China.; Long Aihua, College of Water Conservancy & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University;;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, ;;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Shihezi;;, ;;Beijing 832000;;100038.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang Shaobo,Chen Fulong,Chen Jie,et al. A cultivated area forecasting approach in artificial oases under climate change and human activities[J],2019,11(3):400-418.
APA	Zhang Shaobo,Chen Fulong,Chen Jie,Wang Jing,Li Shaofei,&Long Aihua.(2019).A cultivated area forecasting approach in artificial oases under climate change and human activities.Journal of Arid Land,11(3),400-418.
MLA	Zhang Shaobo,et al."A cultivated area forecasting approach in artificial oases under climate change and human activities".Journal of Arid Land 11.3(2019):400-418.