干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Runoff of arid and semi-arid regions simulated and projected by CLM-DTVGM and its multi-scale fluctuations as revealed by EEMD analysis

Arid

	Runoff of arid and semi-arid regions simulated and projected by CLM-DTVGM and its multi-scale fluctuations as revealed by EEMD analysis
	Ning Like; Xia Jun; Zhan Chesheng; Zhang Yongyong
来源期刊	Journal of Arid Land
ISSN	1674-6767
出版年	2016
卷号	8 期号:4 页码:506-520
英文摘要	Runoff is a major component of the water cycle, and its multi-scale fluctuations are important to water resources management across arid and semi-arid regions. This paper coupled the Distributed Time Variant Gain Model (DTVGM) into the Community Land Model (CLM 3.5), replacing the TOPMODEL-based method to simulate runoff in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. The coupled model was calibrated at five gauging stations for the period 1980-2005 and validated for the period 2006-2010. Then, future runoff (2010-2100) was simulated for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios. After that, the spatial distributions of the future runoff for these scenarios were discussed, and the multi-scale fluctuation characteristics of the future annual runoff for the RCP scenarios were explored using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) analysis method. Finally, the decadal variabilities of the future annual runoff for the entire study area and the five catchments in it were investigated. The results showed that the future annual runoff had slowly decreasing trends for scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 during the period 2010-2100, whereas it had a non-monotonic trend for the RCP 4.5 scenario, with a slow increase after the 2050s. Additionally, the future annual runoff clearly varied over a decadal time scale, indicating that it had clear divisions between dry and wet periods. The longest dry period was approximately 15 years (2040-2055) for the RCP 2.6 scenario and 25 years (2045-2070) for the RCP 4.5 scenario. However, the RCP 8.5 scenario was predicted to have a long dry period starting from 2045. Under these scenarios, the water resources situation of the study area will be extremely severe. Therefore, adaptive water management measures addressing climate change should be adopted to proactively confront the risks of water resources.
英文关键词	Community Land Model (CLM) Distributed Time Variant Gain Model (DTVGM) Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) decadal variability arid and semi-arid regions
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Bronze
收录类别	CSCD
WOS研究方向	Geology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5722403
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/335659
作者单位	Ning Like, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.; Zhan Chesheng, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.; Zhang Yongyong, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.; Xia Jun, Wuhan University, State Key Laboratory of Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan, Hubei 430000, China.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ning Like,Xia Jun,Zhan Chesheng,et al. Runoff of arid and semi-arid regions simulated and projected by CLM-DTVGM and its multi-scale fluctuations as revealed by EEMD analysis[J],2016,8(4):506-520.
APA	Ning Like,Xia Jun,Zhan Chesheng,&Zhang Yongyong.(2016).Runoff of arid and semi-arid regions simulated and projected by CLM-DTVGM and its multi-scale fluctuations as revealed by EEMD analysis.Journal of Arid Land,8(4),506-520.
MLA	Ning Like,et al."Runoff of arid and semi-arid regions simulated and projected by CLM-DTVGM and its multi-scale fluctuations as revealed by EEMD analysis".Journal of Arid Land 8.4(2016):506-520.