干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Contributions of anthropogenic and external natural forcings to climate changes over China based on CMIP5 model simulations

Arid

	Contributions of anthropogenic and external natural forcings to climate changes over China based on CMIP5 model simulations
	Zhao Tianbao; Li Chunxiang; Zuo Zhiyan
来源期刊	Science China. Earth Sciences
ISSN	1674-7313
出版年	2016
卷号	59 期号:3 页码:503-517
英文摘要	Based on observations and historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive, the contributions of human activities (including greenhouse gases (GHGs), anthropogenic aerosols (AAs), and land use (LU)) and external natural forcings (Nat) to climate changes in China over the past 50 years were quantified. Both anthropogenic and external natural forcings account for 95%-99% of the observed temperature change from 1951-1975 to 1981-2005. In particular, the temperature changes induced by GHGs are approximately 2-3 times stronger than the observed changes, and AAs impose a significant cooling effect. The total external forcings can explain 65%-78% of the observed precipitation changes over the past 50 years, in which AAs and GHGs are the primary external forcings leading to the precipitation changes; in particular, AAs dominate the main spatial features of precipitation changes in eastern China. Human activities also dominate the long-term non-linear trends in observed temperature during the past several decades, and, in particular, GHGs, the primary warming contributor, have produced significant warming since the 1960s. Compared to the long-term non-linear trends in observed precipitation, GHGs have largely caused the wetting changes in the arid-semiarid region since the 1970s, whereas AAs have led to the drying changes in the humid-semihumid region; both LU and Nat can impose certain impacts on the long-term non-linear trends in precipitation. Using the optimal fingerprinting detection approach, the effects of human activities on the temperature changes can be detected and attributed in China, and the effect of GHGs can be clearly detected from the observations in humid-semihumid areas. However, the anthropogenic effects cannot be detected in the observed precipitation changes, which may be due to the uncertainties in the model simulations and to other issues. Although some results in this paper still need improvement due to uncertainties in the coupled models, this study is expected to provide the background and scientific basis for climate changes to conduct vulnerability and risk assessments of the ecological systems and water resources in the arid-semiarid region of China.
英文关键词	Human activity External natural forcings CMIP5 models Contributions Climate changes China
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	CSCD
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5643706
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/335617
作者单位	Zhao Tianbao, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for East Asia, Beijing 100029, China.; Li Chunxiang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for East Asia, Beijing 100029, China.; Zuo Zhiyan, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao Tianbao,Li Chunxiang,Zuo Zhiyan. Contributions of anthropogenic and external natural forcings to climate changes over China based on CMIP5 model simulations[J],2016,59(3):503-517.
APA	Zhao Tianbao,Li Chunxiang,&Zuo Zhiyan.(2016).Contributions of anthropogenic and external natural forcings to climate changes over China based on CMIP5 model simulations.Science China. Earth Sciences,59(3),503-517.
MLA	Zhao Tianbao,et al."Contributions of anthropogenic and external natural forcings to climate changes over China based on CMIP5 model simulations".Science China. Earth Sciences 59.3(2016):503-517.