干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): A system dynamics approach for water resources policy analysis in arid land:a model for Manas River Basin

Arid

	A system dynamics approach for water resources policy analysis in arid land:a model for Manas River Basin
	Dai Shanshan; Li Lanhai; Xu Honggang; Pan Xiangliang; Li Xuemei
来源期刊	Journal of Arid Land
ISSN	1674-6767
出版年	2013
卷号	5 期号:1 页码:118-131
英文摘要	The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region,similar to other arid regions,is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems.Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues.An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries,agricultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration explicitly,in which water stress is used as a major indicator.The model is composed of four sectors:1) natural surface and groundwater resources;2) water demand;3) the water exploitation process,including the decision to build reservoirs,canals and pumps;4) water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply,limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency.The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth,irrigated land area,industry output,perceived water stress,groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River;and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step.The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior,and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately.Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth,land reclamation,pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity.Six scenarios were designed to investigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation,urban water recycling,water demand control and groundwater pumping control.The simulation runs demonstrated that the technical solutions for improving water availability and water use efficiency are not sustainable.Acknowledging the carrying capacity of water resources and eliminating a growth-orientated value system are crucial for the sustainability of the Manas River Basin.
英文关键词	water resources management sustainable development system dynamics modeling water stress arid river basin
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Bronze
收录类别	CSCD
WOS研究方向	Engineering
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4906442
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/335242
作者单位	Dai Shanshan, Faculty of Hospitality and Tourism Management,Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, 999078, China.; Li Lanhai, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology;;Xinjiang Key Lab of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China.; Li Xuemei, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology;;Xinjiang Key Lab of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China.; Xu Honggang, School of Tourism Management,Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510275, China.; Pan Xiangliang, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dai Shanshan,Li Lanhai,Xu Honggang,et al. A system dynamics approach for water resources policy analysis in arid land:a model for Manas River Basin[J],2013,5(1):118-131.
APA	Dai Shanshan,Li Lanhai,Xu Honggang,Pan Xiangliang,&Li Xuemei.(2013).A system dynamics approach for water resources policy analysis in arid land:a model for Manas River Basin.Journal of Arid Land,5(1),118-131.
MLA	Dai Shanshan,et al."A system dynamics approach for water resources policy analysis in arid land:a model for Manas River Basin".Journal of Arid Land 5.1(2013):118-131.