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	Climate change and migrations : taking a fresh look through nomadic migrations in historical China analysis
	Damette, Olivier; Pei, Qing
通讯作者	Damette, O
来源期刊	REGION ET DEVELOPPEMENT
ISSN	1267-5059
EISSN	2117-0843
出版年	2020
期号	51 页码:17-30
英文摘要	In this article, we analyze the impact of climate change on the nomadic migration flows through a cliometric study conducted on Historical China throughout two thousand years. Our econometric results enable us to outline different regimes - both climatic and historical - via a time series analysis taking into account nonlinearity. When the rainfalls have been scarce, nomadic migrations from North to South China have been aggravated. During these periods/regimes, the temperatures, probably at a too high level, have reinforced these migrations; this result has not been demonstrated in the previous literature. The role of precipitations has probably been overestimated in previous literature while the role of temperatures changes has been a bit underestimated, at less the interaction between both climatic variables has maybe been underestimated. The climate change, by modifying the agricultural yields from "pastoralists" in arid or semi-arid regions, has been at the origin of many migrations' flows. Nomadic populations adaptation to climate change generated many migrations from North to the South where agricultural crops were more likely to grow. However, these migrations flows lead to interpersonal conflicts initiated by "pastoralists" nomads and to which "agriculturalists" from the South responded. These results are wondering about the interrelationships between climate, migrations and conflicts in developing countries that are likely to increase in a near future.
英文关键词	Climate Nomadic migration Historical China Nonlinear time series model
类型	Article
语种	French
收录类别	ESCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000592106400002
WOS关键词	WESTERN HAN DYNASTY
WOS类目	Economics
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/334755
作者单位	[Damette, Olivier] Univ Lorraine, BETA, Nancy, France; [Pei, Qing] Educ Univ Hong Kong, Dept Social Sci, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Damette, Olivier,Pei, Qing. Climate change and migrations : taking a fresh look through nomadic migrations in historical China analysis[J],2020(51):17-30.
APA	Damette, Olivier,&Pei, Qing.(2020).Climate change and migrations : taking a fresh look through nomadic migrations in historical China analysis.REGION ET DEVELOPPEMENT(51),17-30.
MLA	Damette, Olivier,et al."Climate change and migrations : taking a fresh look through nomadic migrations in historical China analysis".REGION ET DEVELOPPEMENT .51(2020):17-30.