干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Climate change of the 21st century over China from the ensemble of RegCM4 simulations

Arid

DOI	10.1360/TB-2020-0231
	Climate change of the 21st century over China from the ensemble of RegCM4 simulations
	Zhang, Dongfeng; Gao, Xuejie
通讯作者	Gao, XJ
来源期刊	CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE
ISSN	0023-074X
EISSN	2095-9419
出版年	2020
卷号	65 期号:23 页码:2516-2526
英文摘要	Climate change in the 21st century over China and its different sub-regions is investigated in the study, based on the ensemble of a set of dynamical downscaling experiments over East Asia. The model employed in the experiments is the International Center for Theoretical Physics' Regional Climate Model, version 4 (RegCM4), at 25-km grid spacing, driven by five different CMIP5 (phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) global models under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The model version used was customized for better performance over the region. Ten sub-regions of China were defined, with consideration paid to local economic and societal developments, vulnerability of ecosystems, and sensitivity to future climate changes. A substantial warming in the future in China is projected, and this warming is more pronounced over the Tibetan Plateau during DJF (December-January-February) and Northwest China (where dry climate prevails) during JJA (June-July-August). A broad increase in temperature extreme indices-Namely, TXx (annual maximum daily maximum surface air temperature) and TNn (annual minimum daily minimum surface air temperature)-is reported, along with increased mean temperature. The results suggest more frequent and intense heat waves in the warm seasons, and thus more risks in terms of human health and mortality, over the sub-regions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. the Yangtze Delta, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. and the Cross-Taiwan Strait Coasts, with their dense cities and populations. Meanwhile, the warming over the Tibetan Plateau may lead to degradation of frozen soil and glacial melt, and thus a greater frequency of related geological hazards. while increased evapotranspiration following the warming over the Arid and Semi-arid Northwest and Losses Plateau sub-regions may worsen the situation with respect to water resource shortages. Precipitation change in DJF shows a prevailing increase in northern China, with good agreement among the ensemble members. The increase is largest in the Northwest China sub-region. In southern China, small changes with a slight decrease in the southern part of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau are found. In JJA, precipitation increases over western China, the northern part of Northeast China, and the Yellow-Huai River basins, and shows small changes over other areas. A general increase in the precipitation extreme index (RX1day, the annual maximum 1-day precipitation) is found over the whole country, indicating more extreme precipitation events in the future. For the CDD index (the largest number of consecutive days when the daily precipitation amount is less than 1 mm), a general increase in the north and a decrease in the south are found. Regarding the increases of heavy precipitation events, the Arid and Semi-arid Northwest and Losses and Tibetan Plateau sub-regions, with their fragile ecosystems, may experience relatively more landslide and debris flow events; while over the more populated sub-regions, special concern is needed with respect to the likely greater frequency and more intense nature of flooding and urban-flooding events. Quantitatively, the increases in annual mean temperature, TXx, and TNn in the mid-21st (2041-2060) century relative to the present day (1986-2005) over the whole of China under RCP4.5/RCP8.5 are 1.6/2.2 degrees C, 1.7/2.2 degrees C, and 1.9/2.7 degrees C, respectively. For precipitation, RX1day, and CDD, the values of change are 4%15%, 9%/12% and both around -2 d, respectively. The changes become more pronounced with time. By the end of the 21st century (2081-2098), under the higher scenario of RCP8.5, the changes in annual mean temperature, TXx, TNn, precipitation, RX1day and CDD are 4.6, 4.7, 5.5 degrees C, 12%, 25%. and -4 d, respectively. Finally, the deficiencies and uncertainties that remain in projecting the future climate over the region are also outlined and discussed in the paper.
英文关键词	climate change regional climate model ensemble projection China and its different sub-regions
类型	Article
语种	中文
开放获取类型	Bronze
收录类别	ESCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000565880800011
WOS关键词	RIVER-BASINS ; PRECIPITATION ; CMIP5 ; TEMPERATURE ; SYSTEM ; RELIABILITY ; RESOLUTION ; EXTREMES ; EARTH ; MODEL
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
Scopus学科分类	Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China.
来源机构	中国科学院大气物理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/334575
作者单位	[Zhang, Dongfeng] Shanxi Climate Ctr, Taiyuan 030006, Peoples R China; [Gao, Xuejie] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Climate Change Res Ctr, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; [Gao, Xuejie] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Dongfeng,Gao, Xuejie. Climate change of the 21st century over China from the ensemble of RegCM4 simulations[J]. 中国科学院大气物理研究所,2020,65(23):2516-2526.
APA	Zhang, Dongfeng,&Gao, Xuejie.(2020).Climate change of the 21st century over China from the ensemble of RegCM4 simulations.CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE,65(23),2516-2526.
MLA	Zhang, Dongfeng,et al."Climate change of the 21st century over China from the ensemble of RegCM4 simulations".CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE 65.23(2020):2516-2526.