干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Future drought and aridity monitoring using multi-model approach under climate change in Hintalo Wejerat district, Ethiopia

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s40899-019-00350-1
	Future drought and aridity monitoring using multi-model approach under climate change in Hintalo Wejerat district, Ethiopia
	Abrha, Haftu; Hagos, Haftom
通讯作者	Abrha, H
来源期刊	SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
ISSN	2363-5037
EISSN	2363-5045
出版年	2019
卷号	5 期号:4 页码:1963-1972
英文摘要	Drought is a complex natural phenomenon and recurring meteorological event that affects environmental factors and agriculture, humans and wildlife, as well as local economies. For countries located in arid and semi-arid regions, drought monitoring has become important tool. This study aims to evaluate the performances of drought indices and monitor future drought, evapotranspiration and aridity in Hinalo Wejerat, Ethiopia. The baseline climate data (1980-2009) were projected to near (2010-2039) and mid-term (2040-2069) using an ensemble of 20 general circulation models in the mitigation scenario. Drought was estimated using an ensemble of seven indices, namely Standardized Precipitation Index, Percent of Normal Index, Effective Drought Index, Z-score, Rainfall Anomaly Index, Modified China Z-index and Reconnaissance Drought Indexes using Meteorological Drought Monitoring and DrinC software. Time series analyses were calculated using AnClim software. All indices show significant correlation with each other and ensemble at p<0.05. The frequency of moderately dry condition might be increased from 13.3, 13.3 to 16.7%, extremely dry condition from 3.3 to 6.7, 6.7% during the current, near and mid-terms, respectively. The trends of extremely wet, moderately wet and normal might be similar. The change of drought frequency in the current, near and mid-term is significant at p<0.05. Potential evapotranspiration is projected to increase from 1645.6 to 1902.4 and 1988.9 mm per year in the near and mid-term when compared with current. Accordingly, aridity in the near and end-term might increase by 9.9 and 22.1%, respectively. Therefore, this study notes that sustainable water resource management and drought policy should be applied to ensure household food security.
英文关键词	Drought Climate change Aridity Drought indices Potential evapotranspiration
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	ESCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000494686800045
WOS关键词	INDEXES ; SPI ; AGRICULTURE ; VARIABILITY ; SEVERITY ; IMPACT ; BASIN ; INDIA ; RDI
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/333903
作者单位	[Abrha, Haftu; Hagos, Haftom] Mekelle Univ, Inst Climate & Soc, Mekelle, Ethiopia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Abrha, Haftu,Hagos, Haftom. Future drought and aridity monitoring using multi-model approach under climate change in Hintalo Wejerat district, Ethiopia[J],2019,5(4):1963-1972.
APA	Abrha, Haftu,&Hagos, Haftom.(2019).Future drought and aridity monitoring using multi-model approach under climate change in Hintalo Wejerat district, Ethiopia.SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,5(4),1963-1972.
MLA	Abrha, Haftu,et al."Future drought and aridity monitoring using multi-model approach under climate change in Hintalo Wejerat district, Ethiopia".SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 5.4(2019):1963-1972.