干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Possible Scenarios of Winter Wheat Yield Reduction of Dryland Qazvin Province, Iran, Based on Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation Till the End of the Century

Arid

DOI	10.3390/cli6040078
	Possible Scenarios of Winter Wheat Yield Reduction of Dryland Qazvin Province, Iran, Based on Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation Till the End of the Century
	Mirgol, Behnam; Nazari, Meisam
通讯作者	Nazari, M
来源期刊	CLIMATE
ISSN	2225-1154
出版年	2018
卷号	6 期号:4
英文摘要	The climate of the Earth is changing. The Earth's temperature is projected to maintain its upward trend in the next few decades. Temperature and precipitation are two very important factors affecting crop yields, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. There is a need for future climate predictions to protect vulnerable sectors like agriculture in drylands. In this study, the downscaling of two important climatic variables-temperature and precipitation-was done by the CanESM2 and HadCM3 models under five different scenarios for the semi-arid province of Qazvin, located in Iran. The most efficient scenario was selected to predict the dryland winter wheat yield of the province for the three periods: 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099. The results showed that the models are able to satisfactorily predict the daily mean temperature and annual precipitation for the three mentioned periods. Generally, the daily mean temperature and annual precipitation tended to decrease in these periods when compared to the current reference values. However, the scenarios rcp2.6 and B2, respectively, predicted that the precipitation will fall less or even increase in the period 2070-2099. The scenario rcp2.6 seemed to be the most efficient to predict the dryland winter wheat yield of the province for the next few decades. The grain yield is projected to drop considerably over the three periods, especially in the last period, mainly due to the reduction in precipitation in March. This leads us to devise some adaptive strategies to prevent the detrimental impacts of climate change on the dryland winter wheat yield of the province.
英文关键词	CanESM2 HadCM3 precipitation temperature winter wheat yield
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	DOAJ Gold
收录类别	ESCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000455199900001
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODEL ; IMPACTS
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Scopus学科分类	Univ Kassel, Dept Soil Sci, Nordbahnhofstr 1a, D-37213 Witzenhausen, Germany.
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/333203
作者单位	[Mirgol, Behnam] Imam Khomeini Int Univ, Dept Water Engn, Fac Engn & Technol, Qazvin 3414896818, Iran; [Nazari, Meisam] Georg August Univ Gottingen, Dept Crop Sci, Fac Agr Sci, Busgenweg 5, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany; [Nazari, Meisam] Univ Kassel, Dept Soil Sci, Nordbahnhofstr 1a, D-37213 Witzenhausen, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mirgol, Behnam,Nazari, Meisam. Possible Scenarios of Winter Wheat Yield Reduction of Dryland Qazvin Province, Iran, Based on Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation Till the End of the Century[J],2018,6(4).
APA	Mirgol, Behnam,&Nazari, Meisam.(2018).Possible Scenarios of Winter Wheat Yield Reduction of Dryland Qazvin Province, Iran, Based on Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation Till the End of the Century.CLIMATE,6(4).
MLA	Mirgol, Behnam,et al."Possible Scenarios of Winter Wheat Yield Reduction of Dryland Qazvin Province, Iran, Based on Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation Till the End of the Century".CLIMATE 6.4(2018).