干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Climate Change Impact on Future Rainfall and Temperature in Semi-arid Areas (Essaouira Basin, Morocco)

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s40710-017-0265-4
	Climate Change Impact on Future Rainfall and Temperature in Semi-arid Areas (Essaouira Basin, Morocco)
	Ouhamdouch, Salah; Bahir, Mohammed
通讯作者	Ouhamdouch, S
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESSES-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL
ISSN	2198-7491
EISSN	2198-7505
出版年	2017
卷号	4 期号:4 页码:975-990
英文摘要	One of the most important areas of current research is the impacts of climate change on climatic parameters, especially temperature and rainfall, as those have direct linkages with vegetation, agriculture and livelihood of people. This study attempts to analyse the possible future climatic changes in a semi-arid area, taking as an example Essaouira basin located on the Atlantic coast of Morocco. The present precipitation and temperature patterns and expected future changes (2018-2050) in Essaouira basin are investigated using the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and reanalysis from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) under the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) protocols for historical and future emission scenarios simulations. Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) is used for the downscaling. Non-parametric Man-Kendall and Pettitt's tests are used to determine the trend and change point of temperature and precipitation series, respectively. The combined application of the results of SDSM, and the non-parametric trend and change point tests in the study area, for the study period 2018-2050, showed a downward trend of annual rainfall for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (17.29%) and upward trends for RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 (12.50% and 21.33%, respectively). The annual mean temperature was found to increase by 0.72 A degrees C, 0.57 A degrees C and 0.69 A degrees C under the RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Furthermore, the study area is predicted to have a shortening of the wet season from five (November to March) to four months (December to March).
英文关键词	Climate change Circulation model SDSM Essaouira basin Semi-arid area Western Morocco
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	ESCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000415318100012
WOS关键词	DAILY PRECIPITATION ; MODEL ; PROJECTIONS ; SCENARIO ; CIRCULATION ; CATCHMENT ; OUTPUTS
WOS类目	Engineering, Environmental
WOS研究方向	Engineering
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/332364
作者单位	[Ouhamdouch, Salah; Bahir, Mohammed] Univ Cadi Ayyad, LGE, Dept Geol, ENS, Marrakech, Morocco
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ouhamdouch, Salah,Bahir, Mohammed. Climate Change Impact on Future Rainfall and Temperature in Semi-arid Areas (Essaouira Basin, Morocco)[J],2017,4(4):975-990.
APA	Ouhamdouch, Salah,&Bahir, Mohammed.(2017).Climate Change Impact on Future Rainfall and Temperature in Semi-arid Areas (Essaouira Basin, Morocco).ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESSES-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL,4(4),975-990.
MLA	Ouhamdouch, Salah,et al."Climate Change Impact on Future Rainfall and Temperature in Semi-arid Areas (Essaouira Basin, Morocco)".ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESSES-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL 4.4(2017):975-990.