干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Climate model performance and change projection for freshwater fluxes: Comparison for irrigated areas in Central and South Asia

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DOI	10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.11.017
	Climate model performance and change projection for freshwater fluxes: Comparison for irrigated areas in Central and South Asia
	Asokan, Shilpa M.; Rogberg, Peter; Bring, Arvid; Jarsjo, Jerker; Destouni, Georgia
通讯作者	Destouni, G
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
EISSN	2214-5818
出版年	2016
卷号	5 页码:48-65
英文摘要	Study region: The large semi-arid Aral Region in Central Asia and the smaller tropical Mahanadi River Basin (MRB) in India. Study focus: Few studies have so far evaluated the performance of the latest generation of global climate models on hydrological basin scales. We here investigate the performance and projections of the global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) for freshwater fluxes and their changes in two regional hydrological basins, which are both irrigated but of different scale and with different climate. New hydrological insights for the region: For precipitation in both regions, model accuracy relative to observations has remained the same or decreased in successive climate model generations until and including CMIP5. No single climate model out-performs other models across all key freshwater variables in any of the investigated basins. Scale effects are not evident from global model application directly to freshwater assessment for the two basins of widely different size. Overall, model results are less accurate and more uncertain for freshwater fluxes than for temperature, and particularly so for model-implied water storage changes. Also, the monsoon-driven runoff seasonality in MRB is not accurately reproduced. Model projections agree on evapotranspiration increase in both regions until the climatic period 2070-2099. This increase is fed by precipitation increase in MRB and by runoff water (thereby decreasing runoff) in the Aral Region. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	CMIP5 global climate models Hydro-climate Freshwater change Central Asia South Asia Monsoon driven seasonality
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	DOAJ Gold
收录类别	ESCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000407357500004
WOS关键词	ARAL SEA ; RIVER-BASIN ; LAND-USE ; CMIP5 ; RESOURCES ; QUANTIFICATION ; SIMULATIONS ; MANAGEMENT ; SCENARIOS ; DISCHARGE
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/331860
作者单位	[Asokan, Shilpa M.; Rogberg, Peter; Bring, Arvid; Jarsjo, Jerker; Destouni, Georgia] Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden; [Asokan, Shilpa M.; Rogberg, Peter; Bring, Arvid; Jarsjo, Jerker; Destouni, Georgia] Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden; [Bring, Arvid] Univ New Hampshire, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Water Syst Anal Grp, Durham, NH 03824 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Asokan, Shilpa M.,Rogberg, Peter,Bring, Arvid,et al. Climate model performance and change projection for freshwater fluxes: Comparison for irrigated areas in Central and South Asia[J],2016,5:48-65.
APA	Asokan, Shilpa M.,Rogberg, Peter,Bring, Arvid,Jarsjo, Jerker,&Destouni, Georgia.(2016).Climate model performance and change projection for freshwater fluxes: Comparison for irrigated areas in Central and South Asia.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES,5,48-65.
MLA	Asokan, Shilpa M.,et al."Climate model performance and change projection for freshwater fluxes: Comparison for irrigated areas in Central and South Asia".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES 5(2016):48-65.