干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Linking Bayesian and agent-based models to simulate complex social-ecological systems in semi-arid regions

Arid

DOI	10.3389/fenvs.2015.00055
	Linking Bayesian and agent-based models to simulate complex social-ecological systems in semi-arid regions
	Pope, Aloah J.; Gimblett, Randy
通讯作者	Pope, AJ
来源期刊	FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
EISSN	2296-665X
出版年	2015
卷号	3
英文摘要	Interdependencies of ecologic, hydrologic, and social systems challenge traditional approaches to natural resource management in semi-arid regions. As a complex social-ecological system, water demands in the Sonoran Desert from agricultural and urban users often conflicts with water needs for its ecologically-significant riparian corridors. To explore this system, we developed an agent-based model to simulate complex feedbacks between human decisions and environmental conditions in the Rio Sonora Watershed. Cognitive mapping in conjunction with stakeholder participation produced a Bayesian model of conditional probabilities of local human decision-making processes resulting to changes in water demand. Probabilities created in the Bayesian model were incorporated into the agent-based model, so that each agent had a unique probability to make a positive decision based on its perceived environment at each point in time and space. By using a Bayesian approach, uncertainty in the human decision-making process could be incorporated. The spatially-explicit agent-based model simulated changes in depth-to-groundwater by well pumping based on an agent's water demand. Changes in depth-to-groundwater feedback to influence agent behavior, as well as determine unique vegetation classes within the riparian corridor. Each vegetation class then provides varying stakeholder-defined quality values of ecosystem services. Using this modeling approach allowed us to examine effects on both the ecological and social system of semi-arid riparian corridors under various scenarios. The insight provided by the model contributes to understanding how specific interventions may alter the complex social-ecological system in the future.
英文关键词	Bayesian cognitive mapping agent-based modeling sonoran desert social-ecological systems hybrid modeling
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	DOAJ Gold
收录类别	ESCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000458082100027
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	University of Arizona
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/331484
作者单位	[Pope, Aloah J.; Gimblett, Randy] Univ Arizona, Coll Agr & Life Sci, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, 1064 E Lowell St, Tucson, AZ 85719 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pope, Aloah J.,Gimblett, Randy. Linking Bayesian and agent-based models to simulate complex social-ecological systems in semi-arid regions[J]. University of Arizona,2015,3.
APA	Pope, Aloah J.,&Gimblett, Randy.(2015).Linking Bayesian and agent-based models to simulate complex social-ecological systems in semi-arid regions.FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE,3.
MLA	Pope, Aloah J.,et al."Linking Bayesian and agent-based models to simulate complex social-ecological systems in semi-arid regions".FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE 3(2015).