干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Impact of Climate Change on River Flows in the Black Volta River

Arid

DOI	10.20965/jdr.2014.p0432
	Impact of Climate Change on River Flows in the Black Volta River
	Sawai, Nobuhiko; Kobayashi, Kenichiro; Apip; Takara, Kaoru; Ishikawa, Hirohiko; Yokomatsu, Muneta; Samaddar, Subhajyoti; Juati, Ayilari-Naa; Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Gordana
通讯作者	Sawai, N
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF DISASTER RESEARCH
ISSN	1881-2473
EISSN	1883-8030
出版年	2014
卷号	9 期号:4 页码:432-442
英文摘要	This paper assesses the impact of climate change in the Black Volta River by using data output from the atmospheric general circulation model with a 20-km resolution (AGCM20) through the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The Black Volta, which flows mainly in Burkina Faso and Ghana in West Africa, is a major tributary of the Volta River. The basin covers 142,056 km(2) and has a semi-arid tropical climate. Before applying AGCM20 output to a rainfall-runoff model, the performance of the AGCM20 rainfall data is investigated by comparing it with the observed rainfall in the Black Volta Basin. To assess the possible impact of rainfall change on river flow, a kinematic wave model, which takes into consideration saturated and unsaturated subsurface soil zones, was performed. The rainfall analysis shows that, the correlation coefficient of the monthly rainfall between the observed rainfall and AGCM20 for the present climate (1979-2004) is 0.977. In addition, the analysis shows that AGCM20 overestimates precipitation during the rainy season and underestimates the dry season for the present climate. The analysis of the AGCM20 output shows the precipitation pattern change in the future (2075-2099). In the future, precipitation is expected to increase by 3%, whereas evaporation and transpiration are expected to increase by 5% and by 8%, respectively. Also, daily maximum rainfall is expected to be 20 mm, or 60%, higher. Thus, the future climate in this region is expected to be more severe. The rainfall-runoff simulation is successfully calibrated at the Bamboi discharge gauging station in the Black Volta from June 2000 to December 2000 with 0.72 of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency index. The model is applied with AGCM20 outputs for the present climate (1979-2004) and future climate (2075-2099). The results indicate that future discharge will decrease from January to July at the rate of the maximum of 50% and increase from August to December at the rate of the maximum of 20% in the future. Therefore, comprehensive planning for both floods and droughts are urgently needed in this region.
英文关键词	the Black Volta River climate change AGCM20 distributed rainfall-runoff model flood
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	ESCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000448810000004
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Geology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/330987
作者单位	[Sawai, Nobuhiko] Nippon Koei Co Ltd, Res & Dev Ctr, 2304 Inarihara, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3001259, Japan; [Kobayashi, Kenichiro] Kobe Univ, Res Ctr Urban Safety & Secur, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan; [Apip] Indonesian Inst Sci, Res Ctr Limnol, Jakarta, Indonesia; [Takara, Kaoru; Ishikawa, Hirohiko; Yokomatsu, Muneta; Samaddar, Subhajyoti] Kyoto Univ, Disaster Prevent Res Inst, Kyoto, Japan; [Juati, Ayilari-Naa] Ghana Meteorol Agcy, Accra, Ghana; [Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Gordana] Univ Dev Studies, Tamale, Ghana
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sawai, Nobuhiko,Kobayashi, Kenichiro,Apip,et al. Impact of Climate Change on River Flows in the Black Volta River[J],2014,9(4):432-442.
APA	Sawai, Nobuhiko.,Kobayashi, Kenichiro.,Apip.,Takara, Kaoru.,Ishikawa, Hirohiko.,...&Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Gordana.(2014).Impact of Climate Change on River Flows in the Black Volta River.JOURNAL OF DISASTER RESEARCH,9(4),432-442.
MLA	Sawai, Nobuhiko,et al."Impact of Climate Change on River Flows in the Black Volta River".JOURNAL OF DISASTER RESEARCH 9.4(2014):432-442.