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Quantitative pathway analysis of the exposure of the wheat production area with Tilletia indica M. teliospores one year after importation of US wheat for grain into the EU and desert durum wheat into Italy
通讯作者EFSA, Parma, Italy.
来源期刊EFSA JOURNAL
EISSN1831-4732
出版年2010
卷号8期号:6
英文摘要The EFSA Plant Health Unit asked the Assessment Methodology Unit to recalculate and update the Quantitative Pathway Analysis of the exposure of the EU wheat production area with Tilletia indica M. teliospores provided by USDA APHIS. Simulations were computed, for importations of US wheat into EU and desert durum wheat into Italy, based on original model and an updated model with revised parameter values. Model output was teliospores number per hectare on soil surface of each EU country. Simulated teliospores numbers entering EU were lower with the updated than with the original model. These results showed a high uncertainty, underestimated with the original model, over the number of teliospores entering each EU country. Sensitivity analysis showed several key parameters (proportion of bunted kernels in Arizona regulated counties, number of Arizona positive hectares and number of teliospores per bunted kernel) strongly influencing number of teliospores entering the EU. In addition, high sensitivity indices were obtained with the updated wheat model for several parameters related to EU country characteristics. Further research would be needed to refine parameter values and to reduce uncertainty. This technical report contains a full description of the calculations and results. The description and discussion of the scenario and model can be found in the Scientific Opinion on a quantitative pathway analysis of the likelihood of Tilletia indica M. introduction into EU with importation of US wheat of EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH) (EFSA 2010).
英文关键词Probabilistic quantitative pathway analysis karnal bunt Tilletia Indica M. wheat durum wheat import of grain
类型Article
语种英语
开放获取类型DOAJ Gold
收录类别ESCI
WOS记录号WOS:000408933000033
WOS类目Food Science & Technology
WOS研究方向Food Science & Technology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/329514
作者单位[European Food Safety Authority] EFSA, Parma, Italy
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. Quantitative pathway analysis of the exposure of the wheat production area with Tilletia indica M. teliospores one year after importation of US wheat for grain into the EU and desert durum wheat into Italy[J],2010,8(6).
APA (2010).Quantitative pathway analysis of the exposure of the wheat production area with Tilletia indica M. teliospores one year after importation of US wheat for grain into the EU and desert durum wheat into Italy.EFSA JOURNAL,8(6).
MLA "Quantitative pathway analysis of the exposure of the wheat production area with Tilletia indica M. teliospores one year after importation of US wheat for grain into the EU and desert durum wheat into Italy".EFSA JOURNAL 8.6(2010).
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