干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Severity of Droughts in Arid Regions

Arid

	Severity of Droughts in Arid Regions
	Tarawneh, Zeyad S.; Elgaali, Elgaali A.; Hamdi, Moshrik R.
通讯作者	Tarawneh, ZS
来源期刊	JORDAN JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
ISSN	1993-0461
EISSN	2225-157X
出版年	2008
卷号	2 期号:3 页码:228-237
英文摘要	The increasing water shortage in Jordan threatens the environment and badly affects most of the scoi-economic activities. In central Jordan, where major agricultural and water storage projects are located, the October-May rainy season precipitation for two gauging sites; namely Amman Airport and Madaba, is used in the present study to investigate the occurrence of extreme droughts. The extreme regional dry year occurs when the precipitation in that year falls under the threshold of 1 Standard Deviation below the long-term mean at site. Historical precipitation data, 1938-2005, are used to simulate 50000 precipitation data using multivariate stochastic simulation model of order 1, MAR(1). Drought analysis using the historical precipitation shows that extreme droughts fall out as individual years, while using generated precipitation droughts is distributed as 1 year events mostly, and as 2 and 3 years duration although less. This study also presents a theoretical model to estimate the return period of extreme droughts. The estimated return period of the 1 year extreme drought in central Jordan is around 10 years, whereas it is 160 years or more for droughts of longer durations. The probability that an extreme drought occurs at least once in a planning period of 25 years, defined as the risk, is found to be more than 90% for drought of 1 year duration, while it is found to be 15% or less for events of 2 years or more.
英文关键词	Drought analysis Precipitation in Jordan Return period Stochastic simulation
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	ESCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000434606700004
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil
WOS研究方向	Engineering
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/329129
作者单位	[Tarawneh, Zeyad S.] Hashemite Univ, Dept Civil Engn, POB 150459, Zarqa 13115, Jordan; [Elgaali, Elgaali A.] Dubai Mens Coll, Higher Coll Technol, Civil Engn Dept, Dubai, U Arab Emirates; [Hamdi, Moshrik R.] Hashemite Univ, Dept Land Management & Environm, Fac Nat Resources & Environm, Zarqa 13115, Jordan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tarawneh, Zeyad S.,Elgaali, Elgaali A.,Hamdi, Moshrik R.. Severity of Droughts in Arid Regions[J],2008,2(3):228-237.
APA	Tarawneh, Zeyad S.,Elgaali, Elgaali A.,&Hamdi, Moshrik R..(2008).Severity of Droughts in Arid Regions.JORDAN JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING,2(3),228-237.
MLA	Tarawneh, Zeyad S.,et al."Severity of Droughts in Arid Regions".JORDAN JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING 2.3(2008):228-237.