干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Changes in the characteristics of 'wet' and 'dry' Red Sea Trough over the Eastern Mediterranean in CMIP5 climate projections

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00704-020-03449-0
	Changes in the characteristics of 'wet' and 'dry' Red Sea Trough over the Eastern Mediterranean in CMIP5 climate projections
	Hochman, Assaf; Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita; Kunin, Pavel; Pinto, Joaquim G.
通讯作者	Hochman, A
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
英文摘要	The Eastern Mediterranean resides on the border between the temperate and semi-arid and arid climate zones, and is thus influenced by both mid-latitude and sub-tropical weather systems. Precipitation and extreme weather in this region are mainly associated with either Cyprus Lows or the "wet" Red Sea Troughs. Current regional climate projections indicate that the region may become warmer and drier in future decades. Here, we analyze the influence of enhanced greenhouse gas forcing on the climatological properties of the 'wet' and 'dry' Red Sea Trough (WRST & DRST, respectively). With this aim, a regional synoptic classification and a downscaling algorithm based on past analogs are applied to eighteen rain stations over the main ground water basins in Israel. The algorithms are applied to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 1986-2005 and to eight CMIP5 model simulations for the historical (1986-2005) and end of the century (2081-2100) climate conditions according to the RCP8.5 scenario. For the historical period, the CMIP5 models are largely able to represent the characteristics of the Red Sea Trough. Based on the multi-model mean, significant changes are found for WRST and DRST for the late XXI Century. First, an increase in the meridional pressure gradient is found for both the WRST and the DRST, implying stronger horizontal winds. Furthermore, a significant decrease in the occurrence of the WRST (- 20%) and a significant increase in the frequency of the DRST (+ 19%) are identified. Accordingly, the persistence of the WRST decreases (- 9%), while for DRST increases (+ 9%). The decline in the frequency of WRST occurs primarily in the transition seasons, while the increase for DRST is found throughout the wet season. In total, the daily rainfall associated with the WRST system is projected to significantly decline (- 37%) by the end of the XXI century. These results document the projected changes in a dominant synoptic system in this area, which can facilitate a better estimation of the arising challenges, e.g., related to shortage of water resources and associated political unrest, reduced agricultural potential, and increased air pollution and forest fires. Such a pathway can ultimately foster novel mitigation strategies for water resources management and regional climate change adaptation.
英文关键词	Active Red Sea Trough Synoptic classification Climate change Eastern Mediterranean Global warming Middle East
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Other Gold, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000588603000001
WOS关键词	DAILY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS ; EVENTS ; CLASSIFICATION ; PRECIPITATION ; DESERT ; ISRAEL ; FLOODS ; STORMS ; NEGEV ; MODEL
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	Hebrew University of Jerusalem
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/328477
作者单位	[Hochman, Assaf; Pinto, Joaquim G.] Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Dept Tropospher Res, Karlsruhe, Germany; [Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita] Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Freddy & Nadine Hermann Inst Earth Sci, Jerusalem, Israel; [Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita] Israel Inst Biol Res, Dept Environm Phys, Environm Sci Div, Ness Ziona, Israel; [Kunin, Pavel] Life Sci Res Israel, Ness Ziona, Israel
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hochman, Assaf,Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita,Kunin, Pavel,et al. Changes in the characteristics of 'wet' and 'dry' Red Sea Trough over the Eastern Mediterranean in CMIP5 climate projections[J]. Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
APA	Hochman, Assaf,Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita,Kunin, Pavel,&Pinto, Joaquim G..
MLA	Hochman, Assaf,et al."Changes in the characteristics of 'wet' and 'dry' Red Sea Trough over the Eastern Mediterranean in CMIP5 climate projections".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY